Should the Cubs be Worried about the 80 wins Prediction?
To get the new season underway, Chicago Cubs fans are livid. At the start of February,
PECOTA released their projections for the upcoming 2019 season, which made for some
ghastly reading for anyone associated with the Cubs.
The Baseball Prospectus’ annual projection system foresaw the Cubs only achieving 82 wins this season to finish third in the NL Central, but that wasn’t the end of PECOTA’s Cub-bashing. Just over a week later, they made some adjustments to their predictions, putting the Cubs down to 80 wins according to NBC Sports, placing them fifth in the division, turning fans of the 2016 World Series champions from a state of disgruntlement to full-on rage.
Cubs players have been very dismissive of the predictions since, as you would expect, and management has gone another step further. At their spring training facility, just under the workout schedule, there was some inspiration in the form of the PECOTA prediction.
The predictions are being dismissed across the board, but is there a reason for Cubs fans to be fearful of PECOTA’s findings?
Chicago’s decline since winning it all
How about we go with this in 2019:#HockeyTwitter
2019 Stanley Cup Champions: Chicago #Blackhawks ? @NHLBlackhawks2019 World Series Champions: Chicago @Cubs #EverybodyIn ⚾️
2019 Super Bowl Champions: Chicago Bears ? ⬇️ #BearsTwitter @ChicagoBearsWhatcha think? pic.twitter.com/akOlhxwXtl
— Ryan Fedrau (@the_fed_23) February 15, 2019
Source: Ryan Fedrau, via Twitter
When the Chicago Cubs won the World Series in 2016, the young core of superstars looked
primed to forge a dynasty at a club that hadn’t won the ultimate prize in North American
baseball for 108 years.
In 2015, the team shot up from 73 wins to 97 wins, falling short in the NLCS. After their
victory the following year, a drop was expected in 2017 seeing as a team hadn’t won back-to-
back World Series trophies since the New York Yankees at the start of the millennium.
But 2018 yielded another step down in the postseason, going out to the Colorado Rockies in
the wild-card round after a 95-win season saw them place second to the Milwaukee Brewers
by a single win. Five Thirty-Eight sees it as a result of a declining core as well as the team
president, Theo Epstein, not bringing in effective reinforcements able to supplement the core
group, with an emphasis on this being particularly lacking in the pitching department.
Continued lack of offseason action
Theo Epstein says Cubs will have ‘incredibly high standard’ for Addison Russell and will try to make amends for Joe Ricketts’ ‘ugly, disgusting’ emails https://t.co/2zSlIPcvHI pic.twitter.com/NDL1UQ6obS #Cubs
— Ben Johnson (@playtheapp1) February 13, 2019
Source: Ben Johnson, via Twitter
Theo Epstein has, once again, been unable to supplement the superstar core of the Chicago
Cubs, but in fairness, despite this being one of the best free agent classes of all-time, the
offseason has been very slow across the entirety of the league.
Then again, as recorded by Forbes, the Cubs did pick up Cole Hamels’ $20 million option. So, it’s a tough pill to swallow when the team says that it doesn’t have the money to try and bring in anyone else, particularly when the likes of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have been floating around.
Regardless of their offseason inactivity and decision to roll with their current crop, the Chicago Cubs are still highly rated by the experts, coming in as the second-best National League side. According to the MLB odds on bet365, the Cubs are at +550 to win the National League in the playoffs, only behind the +350 Los Angeles Dodgers, and at +1100 as the fifth-favorites to win it all.
Evidently, the predictions of PECOTA are currently being seen as a bit far-fetched by the experts and fans, and with good reason. This Chicago Cubs team certainly has the talent to take back the NL Central crown as well as push deep into the offseason if all is well.
