So… What’s the Deal with Ian Happ?

The Chicago Cubs have outperformed expectations in 2021. A team that was destined for a third or fourth place finish, has lead the NL Central for the better part of a month. While a tough patch in their schedule has resulted in less than stellar results (which, WTF MLB schedule makers!!), the Cubs are still battling for first in the division.

With so much good, there is still room for improvement. One area would be from the team’s offensive leader (and MVP) from the 2020 season, Ian Happ.

Happ was white hot to start the 2020 campaign. Through the first month of the shortened season, Happ had an OPS of 1.041, a wRC+ of 174, and a wOBA of .433. If you transposed those numbers over the 2019 season (the last full season), Happ would have finished third in OPS (just behind Mike Trout), second in wRC+ (a single point behind Trout), and second in wOBA (edging Trout and finishing a point behind Christian Yelich).

Things derailed a bit when he fouled a ball off the ground and back into his face, hitting himself around his right eye. After that point Happ’s 2020 took a turn, owning a 49 wRC+ from September 4th through the end of the season.

Happ has had really weird fan support through his career. After his incredible spring, before his rookie campaign, fans were all clamoring for him to break camp with the Cubs. When he didn’t, fans would let anyone willing to listen know when Happ performed well in Triple-A. When he finally was called up, Happ hit 24 bombs and posted a 114 wRC+across 115 games.

His 2018 season was a tad disappointing and the fans became torn on whom the Cubs should start in center, Happ or Albert Almora. While Almora seemed to be the superior defensive player, Happ was a far better offensive producer. With Happ continuing to put up above average offensive numbers, hr continued to earn more and more playing time.

The biggest issue with Happ was his swing-and-miss factor. When the 2019 season came around, the Cubs sent Ian back to Iowa to work on his approach and swing. Having cut his strikeouts down, Happ came back up in July and he proved the work in Iowa wasn’t a fluke. That success fell over into the 2020 season.

Recently I saw an article on Cubbies Crib on how disappointing Happ has been this season. Which, from a glance at the back of the baseball card suggests is true. He’s batting .184, getting on at a .298 clip, and has a wRC+ of 82. When a league-average player posts a 100 wRC+, Happ hasn’t been what David Ross had expected in the 2021 season.

There is a purpose for the article as Happ has struggled. There is no place for Taylor’s recommendation that the Cubs are better suited to find a replacement for Happ. There are no place for the comments I have seen from fans are pretty ignorant – especially those who are still calling for Almora. So I wanted to visit the struggles with Happer and see what is really going on.

Is Happ really *struggling* or is he just a victim of bad luck?

The first thing we can look at is Happ’s expected performance. In 2021, Happ has posted a .287 wOBA across 65 games. This is rated 14th worst across all MLB hitters. His xwOBA is .305, suggesting he has had some bad luck mixed in his performance, but that would still rank 24th worst in baseball.

So is there more here?

Happ is walking at a higher pace (12.6%) than his career norms. He is also striking out less (28.7%) than his career averages. So, where are the struggles coming from?

Happ is swinging at less pitches in 2021 than ever (41.7%). One benefit is looking at pitches outside the zone, where he is only swinging at 23.4% of those pitches. He’s also swinging less often at balls in the zone (66%), but he’s making more contact.

Happ is making contact with 70.8% of all offerings, which is in-line with his 2019 contact rates. He is also making more contact on those offerings outside the zone (55.7%). So, what is happening with those balls he’s making contact with? This is where we can start telling the story.

A lot of baseball fans have very strong feelings about launch angle (LA). Most of those feelings are centered around a misunderstanding of what LA is or is about.

That misunderstanding is usually due to thinking LA is about hitting home runs, it isn’t. There is a direct correlation between LA and BABIP. When a hitter hits a ball at a 20 degree LA, they have the highest probability of reaching base safely. A BABIP of .300 is essentially league average. Now, great hitters (take Kris Bryant, who has a career .336 BABIP) will float above that mark and lesser players may float a bit under that mark. But essentially every batted ball (not a home run) has about a 30% chance of becoming a hit.

Happ has a career .311 BABIP. His BABIP in 2021 is .230 and represents the lowest of his career and is lower than every other regular on the Cubs. This could mean he has lost something. Whatever it is, he may have just lost something. Maybe, with the added contact rate in 2021 he is making less “hard contact” rather opting for putting balls in play. This has been a thing with the 2021 Cubs, and perhaps simply trying to put balls in play has limited his actual production?

This idea is supported by the amount of balls Happ has barreled. He’s currently barreling up 9.1% of balls he hits, which is almost 3% lower than his career mark of 12%. But, to the contrary he is on pace to have more “hard hit” balls in 2021 than any other point in his career. So that isn’t really the issue, the issue *IS* his launch angle.

We can see Happ’s exit velo is around his career norms (89.8 MPH avg in 2021 to his 89.7 MPH over his career). His max EV, which isn’t much more than an interesting event, is respectable at 111.9 MPH. But his Launch Angle is significantly lower than his career norms.

A 7.3-degree angle suggests he’s hitting more ground balls in 2021 than ever. With things like shifts and more advanced positioning, ground balls kill a hitters chance of reaching base. We can clearly see this in his xBA (.211), xSLG (.352), and xwOBA (.305). When you hit a ball on the ground, especially in today’s MLB, you are going to get out. Happ is hitting the ball on the ground 8% more than he’s done across his entire career (50.8%). He is also hitting less line drives than he’s hit in the past, hitting a line drive in 19.2% of his batted balls.

This is a recipe for a lack of production.

So, what should the Cubs do? Definitely not find a replacement for Happ. They should be getting him to ramp up his aggressiveness at the plate. 61.7% of the time pitchers are throwing Happ a strike on the first pitch of an at-bat. While there is a strategy to working counts, which Happ is seeing 4.3 pitches per PA, he should be encouraged to jump on strikes early in the count. Pitches that tend to be fastballs, which he is seeing more of in 2021.

It seems most other analytics suggest Happ is hitting the ball hard, if he were to jump on strikes early in the count. 115 pitches he has seen have been some variation of fastballs (four-seam, two-seam, sinkers) which he has watched. Most of those are thrown in or up-and-in.

So, no, don’t look for a Happ replacement. Yes, continue to find starting pitching that might be able to take pressure off the offense and bullpen.