Super Questions for Super Bowl Contender
The Chicago Bears announced to the world that they have arrived. On the back of perhaps the biggest defensive performance of the NFL season, we now know, unequivocally, that they are legitimate contenders in the NFC. The only remaining question is, are they potential Super Bowl contenders?
A knock on the Bears all season has been the notion that they’ve stacked wins against mediocre teams. Losing to the Green Bay Packers, the New York Giants, and the Miami Dolphins didn’t help that idea. It seemed, at least before Sunday night, the New England game was the truest measurement of where this team was – really close.
But now this team has signature wins against the Seattle Seahawks (7-5), Minnesota Vikings (6-5-1), and the Los Angeles Rams (11-2). The last of which stands as proof that this team isn’t just a playoff caliber club, but could potentially be a Super Bowl contender.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This was a huge win, but there are still large questions remaining. Questions that cloud the legitimacy of that Super Bowl stance.
Running game
The running game hasn’t inspired belief, not yet. They average 121 yards rushing per game, but we have to understand that includes nearly 30 yards a game rushing from Mitch Trubisky. They’ve also rushed for less than 100 yards in a game four times, ironically all of them were wins.
Now, the last two weeks the Bears had some mojo going on the ground. In the first half of the Giants game, Jordan Howard was pacing his best game of the season. Earning 68-yards on 13 carries, a 5.2 yards per carry, through the first 30 minutes. He would only touch the ball three more times in 12 second half snaps.
Howard was able to rush for 101 yards in the win against the Rams, a game which there was a bigger emphasis on running the ball.
Now Tarik Cohen has offered the Bears another look from the backfield, but he isn’t exactly the guy that can smash it between the tackles. His value comes in when he runs outside the tackles, bounces a run outside, those sweep plays, the draws, misdirection, or really any play that stretches the field. He is also a much more dangerous passing option out of the backfield, even though Howard has improved his hands quite a bit.
But as much fun as it seems watching Cohen bounce a ball from one end of the field to the other, that isn’t always going to work. Playing in less than great winter weather doesn’t necessarily compliment his style of running. This team will eventually need to run the ball, consistently, between the tackles. To do that, an offense has to commit to it. They have to want to run the ball, and they have to own it.
Coaching
This will come off wrong, without context. Matt Nagy has done an amazing job. Amazing. The balls he has shown on some play calls, specifically this one:
???@TarikCohen to @AnthonyMiller_3 for six! ???#CHIvsNYG | #DaBears pic.twitter.com/F7d9f1kuBE
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 2, 2018
But he also has added nods to Bears’ history as well as Willy Wonka and “The Fridge” with some of his unique plays. In fact, the first play call as Bears head coach, Nagy called upon the T-Formation and a call named “Papa Bear Left” which was a hand off to Cohen. Nagy has added a series of other peculiar plays and formations throughout his first year as head coach of the Chicago Bears. Plays which saw four tight ends, two offensive lineman checking in as tight ends, a formation with two quarterbacks on the field, and “Santa’s Sleigh” the play in which half the formation was defensive players, and what ended with a pass to offensive lineman, Bradley Sowell in the end zone for Sunday night’s only touchdown.
Another big man TD for #DaBears!@Mtrubisky10 finds OT Bradley Sowell for SIX.
?: #LARvsCHI on NBC pic.twitter.com/KNP71AlBbG
— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2018
But for as genius as he is, there have been several times which Nagy decisions have either left points on the board or allowed the other team a chance to score.
In the first week against the Green Bay Packers. With 2:47 on the clock and the Bears looking at a third and two, the Packers were out of timeouts and the Bears had a three point lead. The Bears lined up on the Packer 14 yard line, with the chance to chill the game and beat the Packers in a huge week one match up. All they had to do is feed Howard, who had been impressive on the drive.
Nagy called a pass, out of the shotgun, with Trubisky looking for Anthony Miller in the end zone. With 2:39 remaining in the game, the pass fell to the turf incomplete. Had the Bears run the ball and picked up the first down, that game was essentially over. The play would have run the clock to the two-minute warning, and the Bears could have iced the ball on the next three downs, running the clock to 00:00. Ballgame.
The game turned out differently, and that was a rookie head coach mistake. The balls it took for Nagy to call the Santa’s Sleigh, are the same balls it took to call that play. But you need to temper the urge to “Be You” as it says on his play card, and realize when a single play could be the difference between winning and losing.
Nagy has had some other head scratching calls of late, but they are becoming less and less obvious or harmful. But the play in Green Bay cost the Bears a win, calling a timeout before the half against the Giants allowed for New York to gain another possession, and a score. Without that the Bears would likely be 11-2 at this point and be playing for a first round bye in the playoffs.
There was another play at the end of the half in Sunday night’s game which also allowed for an extra possession, however his defense bailed him out this time. Nearing the end of the half, Nagy sent his punt team out on fourth down. Then, with seconds remaining on the play clock, the regular offense ran onto the field while the put unit came off. They were going for it! A miscue by Bobby Massie, running into a referee and knocking him over, cause the officials to call a timeout, thus ruining the element of surprise. Sitting on their 45 yard line, the Bears absolutely should have gone for it, which would have extended a staled drive, and gave them on a possibly scoring opportunity going into the half. For a coach that often opts for the aggressive play, he fell back on a conservative play call and allowed for the Rams to possibly get things going before the half. Perhaps more importantly, if they scored on that drive, the Rams were receiving the ball at the start of the second half, and could have changed the entire game.
Quarterback play
The largest question remaining for the Bears is the play of quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. I am a giant Trubisky fan, and I think he will develop into one of the next elite-level quarterbacks in the league. But, he’s not there yet.
The oddest part of it is, it isn’t because of his decision-making, or the game moves too quick for him. Things that typical young quarterbacks suffer from. Right now he has an issue with accuracy, something that was supposed to be a major asset of Trubisky. He was supposed to be one of the most accurate quarterbacks to come out in a long time, but we just haven’t seen that yet.
It was getting better. He was hitting receivers in stride, he was throwing to the open spot, and not making the errors with his arm. But then there was a huge regression in Sunday night’s contest. He air-mailed several receivers, was gunning balls when he didn’t have to, which effected his accuracy. Perhaps his shoulder wasn’t allowing him to make the throws, or maybe he was overexcited to play after taking two weeks off? In either case, it reaffirmed several QB graders questions on his accuracy.
I have said on many occasions that around week 14 is when we should really become critical of Trubisky. That would put him at the season and a half mark, and a point in which a lot of QB’s show a big leap in their development. They have seen just about every formation they will see, they have reacted to all the types of pass rushes, the speed of different players, and most game situations.
I can potentially give him a pass as he was out and maybe that shoulder still bugged him a bit, but here on out the jury is going to be very critical of Mitch. After all, we are talking about a team that could make a Super Bowl run, you don’t want the quarterback to be the piece that holds you back.
