The Cubs Have to Extend Bryant Now
June 6th, 2013 is when the Chicago Cubs franchise changed forever. Yes, October 12, 2011, and October 31, 2014, were big. Hell, October 9, 2009, was just as important. But, June 6th, 2013 was the day I, and many other Cubs fans, knew that they would soon win the World Series.
See, June 6th, 2013 is the day the Cubs drafted Kris Bryant from the University of San Diego. Bryant showcased his power, athleticism, and versatility while playing for the Toreros. There he was also named Golden Spikes Award winner, Dick Houser Award winner, National Player of the Year, first-team All-American by Baseball America, and Collegiate Baseball…named first-team All-WCC and the WCC Co-Player of the Year, before being drafted No. 2 overall by the Chicago Cubs.
All he has done since has been the best player on one of the best rosters in baseball.
Everyone knows the awards professionally. Minor League Player of the Year, National League Rookie of the Year, National League MVP, and World Series championship. Since entering the Majors, he has led the National League (third overall) with a 27.0 WAR. Among third baseman (since his call-up) he is second with a 142 wRC+. He owns the highest OBP (.388), third-best slugging (.522), and sixth-best average (.287) across all third baseman since 2015.
Let’s call it what he is – an elite baseball player.
Across Cubdom, we have heard some rumors that the Cubs attempted to approach Bryant, in years past, about a contract extension. Bryant and his agent (Scott Boras) had mostly been dismissive in the past, and Bryant had preferred to just let things play out. According to a local reporter (mostly TV personality now), Bryant turned down a deal in excess of $200 million. This never happened, according to several members of the media that are more closely tied to the team.
In fact, Bryant was very straight-forward in communicating his interest in a potential extension.
Prove it
Even with Bryant being on board for an extension, Kris and the Cubs are in a prove-it year. Bryant was injured throughout 2018 and needed to prove that he recovered.
His woes in 2018 concerned both fans and Cubs management. Sure they knew what kind of athlete he is. They knew the severity of the injury. But Bryant has never been injured before and certainly never had to fight his way back from injury before.
But this wasn’t just Bryant needing to prove himself, it is about the Cubs organization proving it too. Sure the whole playoffs in each of the last four seasons thing, but this roster had to prove they were worth investing in. Bryant is perhaps the biggest factor of the roster, needed to show he is worth investing in.
So he sought out to do so, and he’s responded. In 2019 Bryant is slashing .299/.408/.565, which all but one (OBP) represents a career-high. On top of this, over his last 31 games, Bryant is of otherworldly standards. I mean, Bryant is on a video game set on easy levels, as Evan Altman of Cubs Insider wrote.
Since June 9, a span of 132 plate appearances, Bryant is slashing .360/.462/.631 with a 184 wRC+ and a .455 wOBA. Every single one of his full-season numbers is better than during his MVP season.
I understand that it seems like Bryant isn’t producing, but it is usually as he does what he does quietly. Bryant is every bit as good, if not better, of a base runner as Javier Baez. Thing is, Baez makes it look cool. Baez even has the ability to make an out, look good. Bryant just simply does it and does it better than most in the league.
Runners In Scoring Position
Whether you consider it a lack of clutch, or inability to hit with RISP, or whatever the case, this isn’t a fully accurate portrayal of Bryant and his production. Yes, he is currently slashing .244/.352/.414 with RISP – as a whole – but there are definitely situations where he does excel. Like just with men on he’s hitting .318/.405/.598 or man on third, .400/.500/.600 and bases loaded he’s slashing .333/.429/1.000. These are good lines. If there was ever a clutch situation it is third base and two outs – Kris slashes .500/.700/1.000 in those spots.
Personally, and this is a thought shared by many, many baseball statheads, clutch hitting is just too small of a sample size to judge most hitters. In fact, most hitters results in clutch or RISP or any other category or scenario will almost always (seriously, always) revert to the norm.
Take Derek Jeter for an example. We all remember how clutch Jeter was in the playoffs all those years. Both offensively and defensively, Jeter put a stamp on every game in the postseason. But, when you look at his postseason stats (.308/.374/.465) they are almost identical to his regular-season stat lines (.310/.377/.440). Now, this isn’t scientific beyond using career vs career playoff lines, but this is a trend you see with nearly every player that you assume is “clutch”. Mostly, those players just perform like normal.
Bryant is almost no different in that regard, and wherever he has deficiencies, I wouldn’t bet against him. This is seriously one of the top 10 players in baseball, and that just shouldn’t be disputed any longer.
Pay the man his money
Let’s face it, Bryant is the best star on one of the most successful National League teams over the past five seasons. It is time for the Cubs and Boras to figure out a groundwork (ahem, Nolan Arenado-like) and put it in front of Bryant. He wants to be a Cub, and the Cubs shouldn’t play Russian-roulette with a star of his caliber.
Look to the Washington Nationals last season. Regardless of what you think of Bryce Harper, he is one of the more gifted players in baseball. He also comes with a certain ability to drive sales (Harper’s jersey set records) and money through an organization. Bryant’s name doesn’t hold as much national power as Harper’s name does, but what Bryant does add is the ability to immediately contend.
As Boras would say, if you sign Bryant, welcome to playoffville. Yes, Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, and Joe Maddon, and a roster filled with talented young players have brought the Cubs to the playoffs in each of the past four years, but Bryant is a giant part of that cycle.
This kid, if there is a guy worth it, is worth the $260 million deal. There is only a couple players in all baseball that is worth that type of coin, and the Cubs (with all the resources in the world) shouldn’t let him walk away.
