The Cubs WON the Quintana, Eloy/Cease Deal – Here’s Why

I have seen a lot of folks bringing up the trade between the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox from the 2017 season. This was the deal that landed the Cubs Jose Quintana, for super prospects Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease. When you look at the deal, it is very hard to suggest that this was a fair deal, let alone a deal that the Cubs won. But, I am here to tell you they did – and here’s why.

The White Sox got a stud hitter in Eloy. This kid will hit at the MLB level for a long time. I don’t think there is anyone that would argue that point. He projects well, he has all the power in the world, he just seems to be a prototypical current era hitter. Now, defensively, he might not be great. He might project as a DH or maybe someone you just toss out there and hope he doesn’t mess up too much. In a lot of Cubs fan’s minds, that is what they have in Kyle Schwarber. Jimenez is likely more athletic than Schwarber, but he isn’t a gold glover either.

Cease is a fireballer, averaging 97-MPH on his fastball. But he hasn’t become comfortable at the MLB level – something that better pitchers than he has never been able to do. In 2019, he gave up 47 earned runs in 14-games. He walked 35 hitters in 73 innings. He averaged 4 2/3 innings per start.

This is not good, but, I think he will have an adequate career, eventually.

Now, Jose Quintana… The Cubs were hoping they would receive the Quintana that put up a 3.41 ERA in his first six MLB seasons. But they received a completely mediocre pitcher. A guy that might go two weeks with only allowing one or two runs, or someone who gives up six runs in three consecutive starts. A guy that could take a no-hitter through six innings, and give up eight by the end of the game. He will gut games out for you, he will compete, but for every gem he will have an equal blow up the next night out.

So the Cubs received a mediocre pitcher, for a stud hitter and young promising pitcher – and I’m telling you the Cubs won? I must be crazy!? Or, there’s a bigger reasoning behind the deal which makes it a good deal.

The trade wasn’t Quintana for Eloy and Cease

What if I told you the trade wasn’t just Quintana for Eloy and Cease? I’m not talking about any throw-ins, I am saying there were more players that were really involved in this deal.

If you rewind back to the 2017 season, the Cubs rotation at the beginning of the season consisted of Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, John Lackey, and Brett Anderson. Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler also contributed multiple starts on the season. Of the seven, only four were under contract for the 2018 season – meaning the Cubs would need to either trade for multiple pitchers that were controllable for several years to come, or spend a heck of a lot of money in free agency.

Arrieta would leave and go to the Philadelphia Phillies, Lackey would sorta be force-retired, Anderson was released before August.

To fill the gap, the Cubs signed Yu Darvish on a six-year, $126 million deal ($21 million AAV). They also signed Tyler Chatwood to a three-year, $38 million deal ($12.7m AAV). This was almost $35 million a season between two pitchers.

Now let’s add Lester and Hendricks’ money into the fold. Lester makes $25.8m AAV, and Hendricks is earning $13.75m AAV. Between four pitchers, the Cubs are spending $73.25m a season. If the Cubs had to find another free agent pitcher in 2017-18, they would be pushing $100 million for the five starters.

Quintana has a team-friendly contract, one that certainly allows for a lot more flexibility elsewhere. Over the last three seasons, the Cubs have paid Quintana $26.3m, or about the same amount as Lester makes per season. This is an extremely undervalued contract, as pitchers that make 32 starts a season, consistently, over a ten year period make a heck of a lot more in this league. His durability alone can add another $3-6 million a season to his current salary.

Here is why the Cubs won the deal

The Cubs have essentially cried poor the last two offseasons. They knew they were spending after the 2017 season, and prepared for it. After that season the organization has been up against the Competitive Balance Tax (luxury tax). Had they signed another starting pitcher for $15m a season (or more), they would have been over the CBT in each of the last three seasons.

• 2018 – $197 million CBT threshold, Cubs payroll $193 million
• 2019 – $206 million CBT threshold, Cubs payroll $234 million
• 2020 – $208 million CBT threshold, Cubs payroll $217 million (COVID-19, doesn’t include additional bonuses for 40-man roster)

The Cubs would be facing the most severe of penalties if they were over the tax for the third consecutive year, being taxed at 50%.

The Cubs are already trying to find a way to shed salary, and that has included potential trade talks with guys like Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, and Willson Contreras. If the Cubs didn’t acquire Quintana in 2017, it very well could have meant at least two of those four would have been traded already. Even that isn’t a guarantee and they might have had to entertain offers on at least three of those four – including Anthony Rizzo in that mix too.

So the Cubs didn’t *just* acquire Quintana when they traded Eloy and Cease, they also acquired at least two more seasons of two or more of Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Contreras, and Rizzo.

Any day of the week any trio of Quintana and those current players is worth a hell of a lot more than Eloy or Cease – regardless of what they become at the MLB level.

So yes, the Cubs won that trade even if they gave their cross-town rival Eloy Jimenez. They absolutely won that trade.