The Next BIG Thing
There was a weird shift in the way Chicago Cubs fans followed the team once Theo Epstein came to town. While they were still watching and attending games, they split their attention between the big league team and the minor leagues. While the MLB club was posting 100 loss seasons, the rooting interest turned to “how did Kris Bryant do in Tennessee?”
Since those prospects turned major leaguers, and the club has experienced success, fans are still paying attention to the farm.
It’s been an interesting change in how fans, fan, and personally I believe it’s made fans more intelligent in regards to the game of baseball. Fans discovered Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini, and Ian Happ before they were tapped on the shoulder to make the trip up north. The next guy fans have an eye on is Nico Hoerner.
@Cubs fans it’s ok to get excited about Nico Hoerner. I know I have! Talented and Wants it!!
— Rick Sutcliffe (@Sut_40) March 7, 2019
The excitement over Hoerner was enhanced a bit with a 3-3 performance in his first spring start. Hoerner reached base four times, having two singles, a triple, and a hit by pitch. He then followed that up with a 2-2 performance with a 2-run homer, walk, and two runs scored.
While former Cubs stars are raving about this kid, fans might have an eye on him due to the potential issues at the shortstop position. A quick look at Hoerner will quickly tell you there’s reason to get hyped about the only Cub in the top 100 prospects.
Before we refill our spring training koolaid cups and get too drunk, we need to understand where Hoerner is, and what to expect.
During Hoerner’s first bit of action, he hit .327/.450/.571 with two home runs in 14 games, primarily in the short-season Northwest League. After hitting no collegiate home runs, he has hit two professional homers and now another in spring training. In spring, so far, he is slashing .833/.889/1.833 with a homer, double, triple and no strikeouts. It’s ok to be impressed by these numbers as they only rival the numbers I put up with Ken Griffey Jr in the Ken Griffey Jr Presents, Major League Baseball video game.
It’s easy to get excited over a 2.722 OPS, but tame some of your thoughts as Baseball-Reference currently shows the quality of pitching he’s faced at 7.5, or in other words, slightly above Double-A pitching. Nonetheless, his contact rates are impressive.
The Cubs knew he would own very high contact rates, but also project that he would tap into his power as he grew into his body. Physically developing and using professional hitting techniques would help untap that power. In college his exit velocity was a plus, he hit line drives, he did things that project well into the professional ranks – after fine-tuning a couple of things.
“His exit velocity has been really good,” Jed Hoyer explained when the team drafted Hoerner. “He hits the ball low at this point and he’s been hitting a lot of line drives. His launch angle isn’t very high. We like the fact that he’s a strong kid. He’s twitchy, he’s got bat speed.
“We talk about it all the time, guys growing into power. That’s not just kids out of high school. That’s also kids in college. And we feel like he is a guy that will probably grow into some power.”
Growing into their body, or growing into their power is something that we have heard a lot with young players. Scouting kids that have yet peaked, from a body perspective is a hard task, but so far the Cubs have hit on kids like Ian Happ (a much smaller risk) and David Bote. These are kids that had power, drove the ball hard, and little adjustments to increase launch angle are paying dividends at a professional level.
This is why the Cubs reached for Hoerner in the 2018 draft, and his continued high contact rates and exit velocity, with improved launch angle, is a testament to the Cubs scouts and hitting staffs.
Defensively Hoerner is supposed to be as good as it gets. Range from gap-to-gap, a strong arm, able to make all the plays, he reminds me of a young Troy Tulowitzki.
Now, while he is exciting, and I think the Cubs will keep him with the big league club until the last rounds of cuts (this will bode well for his confidence and allowing him to become familiar with the big league preparation process) he will eventually find his way back to the minor leagues. I would still place him in Tennessee, as I suggested that they did with Happ two seasons ago. But, if he continues to hit, and there shouldn’t be a reason that he doesn’t, the Cubs take a similar path with Hoerner as Happ and place him in Iowa.
Either way, Hoerner is just another example of how the Cubs scouting department is the best in the game with regard to drafting hitters. With the current roster, and now Hoerner showing he could be the next in line, projecting hitting is what they do and it has proven to be a solid plan seven years in.
Featured pic via @CubbyBlue2016
