The Possibly Impossible Path to Re-sign Jake Arrieta
This has been the hottest of hot topic discussions surrounding Chicago Cubs baseball for the past two seasons. Do you or don’t you re-sign Jake Arrieta? Now I don’t like covering these “dead horse” topics, they become redundant and rarely change the minds of the fans. I know right now there will be 40% in the “we have to keep him” bucket, 40% in the “he’s not worth that investment” bucket, 10% in the impartial bucket, and 10% that will reply, “trust in Theo.” There’s also a bucket that won’t read and comment anyways – but that’s another story altogether.
But this is the Internet, and people appreciate a stance, even if it’s not akin to their own.
Jake and agent Scott Boras have drawn their line in the sand, and haven’t budged from it. The Cubs have given it the “old college try” but thus far have fallen short of a number that was strong enough to buyout Jake’s arbitration years. As we enter Arrieta’s final year, the two sides aren’t even discussing the possibility of re-signing.
And why would they? A deal now would leave money on the table that Jake could never earn back, or the Cubs would have to overpay to retain his services.
“Why would a guy take any less when he’s six months from free agency?” Arrieta asked. “I’m not even talking about myself.”
At the moment, only the Cubs are competing for Arrieta’s services. In just a few months there will likely be 10 or more teams vying to sign the coveted right hander. The only current incentive Jake has to re-sign is… convenience. You don’t lose millions of dollars for convenience.
From the Cubs perspective they have a real need. John Lackey is walking after the season. Jon Lester will be here until 2021, but at his age 37 season. Kyle Hendricks is the only established “young” starter which the team has long term control of.
There is Mike Montgomery, and the Cubs do see him as a starting pitcher, but we don’t know that he’s capable. You certainly don’t expect him to replace Arrieta. The Cubs can also roll the dice on Rob Zastryzny, but again there isn’t a track record of successful starting in the big leagues.
So why aren’t the Cubs vehemently attempting to re-sign Jake?
“It’s always about team first, but that sounds cold,” Hoyer said. “I don’t look at it that way. All the guys that have helped us win, you never forget the sacrifices they made and all the great performances. Ultimately, we’re employed by the organization to make the right decisions. They’re hard ones.”
If you read between the lines, Hoyer is talking dollars and cents and how it effects to future of the organization. Which, beyond winning a championship in 2017, that is the most important job of the front office. While the team’s front office knows they need Arrieta (or someone of the like), the decision is made with one eye on today and the other on 2020-21.
The Cubs will soon be granting raises to many of their star players, which just happen to be some of baseball’s best. This complicates things as players like Addison Russell and Javy Baez will more than triple their salaries by the 2018 season. Then who knows where Kris Bryant’s numbers will fall once he begins the arbitration process.
The team will hand out sizable raises to most of these 12 players over the course of the next few seasons.
Addison Russell
Javy Baez
Kyle Hendricks
Kris Bryant
Kyle Schwarber
Albert Almora
Willson Contreras
Matt Szczur
Mike Montgomery
Hector Rondon
Justin Grimm
CJ Edwards
With a team payroll entering the 2017 season of $165 million, you can begin to see how finances will play a huge role in the future. Then the Cubs may need to begin thinking about tearing up the remaining years on Anthony Rizzo’s deal in an effort to keep him in Chicago throughout his entire career.
All of this adds complexity to any long term deal the Cubs may sign in the short term. Jake is an important asset to the team, but more so than Kris Bryant? Anthony Rizzo?
“It’s going to be tough, and it’s their job to figure out how to manage all that,” Rizzo said. “It’s a business, and it’s hard to see what they see. I’m a player. I don’t know the numbers.”
It’s is going to be tough, but there could be a way to pull it off.
Jake is going to look for a Zack Greinke like deal. A six or seven year commitment in the neighborhood of $200 million. Now it’s up to baseball people to decide if he is worth the investment, but most believe he will receive offers in this neighborhood.
“Somebody will pay,” Jake said. “That’s a known fact. I’m healthy, in the prime of my career; I’m going to be good for a long time. Whether it’s here or somewhere else, it remains to be seen.”
Jake is betting on himself, and while he is a physical specimen rarely seen, there could be some hesitant shoppers. Looking at the Greinke deal, the Arizona diamondbacks were rewarded with Zack’s worst season since 2005. Jake will be a half year younger than Zack was to start the 2018 season, and some teams may shy away from that much commitment to an “older” player.
If enough team’s balk, citing Greinke, CC Sabathia, Barry Zito, Kevin Brown, or Mike Hamilton – Arrieta’s tag may come down. If that’s the case it could work to the Cubs favor.
Mind you, I don’t think this will happen and I feel Jake will become an extremely rich man. But if there is limited interest, especially in a longer six or seven year pact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jake come back and sign a four year deal in Chicago.
This continues to give the Cubs the flexibility in the future, and a front end starter in the short term. Even if Theo and Jed hand Jake $35 million a season, it would work in the team’s favor.
“I don’t think you can replace me,” Arrieta said. “You can try. There is not a lot of great pitching in this game. That’s why the guys that are high end get paid so much money. There aren’t a lot of guys on the planet that can do it.”
That is basically the possible impossibility. Jake knows he will make the money, the Cubs can’t afford the price, and they can’t afford to lose the guy.
