This Player is Perfectly Comparable to Bryant, KB and Boras Should Emulate In Deal

There’s a great deal of worry among Chicago Cubs fans when it comes to Kris Bryant. There’s a third of the fanbase that wants the Cubs to trade him, there’s a third that wants the Cubs to sign him to a long-term extension, and there’s a third that for some reason wants David Bote to just take over and Bryant to ride the pine. Whatever the side you sit, there is value in Bryant – via trade or to retain. The question from here on out is, where do the Cubs sit when it comes to one of the most prolific hitters to ever wear the uniform?

I sit firmly in the sign Bryant to a deal and keep him in Chicago. This is a guy that if he retired today would be in the top 10 all-time in terms of Cubs hitters. Ian Happ may have said it best when talking to Bryant on his podcast, if he remains a Cub there would be a KB17 flag and possibly a statue out front.

I try and have a level-headed approach whenever I discuss sports and what a team should or shouldn’t do. I understand that by me saying the Cubs should retain Bryant at most costs, a lot of you will call me a homer or someone that hasn’t let 2016 go. Thing is, I have been able to separate the two, my fandom and reality. One thing I haven’t been able to quite understand is the knee-jerk reactions a lot of fans have towards the game and especially Bryant.

I would believe a lot of the new opinion some fans have built towards Bryant is because he has been hurt and an erroneous report about a deal north of $200 million that was never offered. It seems that the average Joe believes a professional athlete can run out there and be an effective player when your shoulder is torn to pieces.

There’s another third baseman that many people gave up on and someone who was once pegged to land the next $250 million contract. He was also an ex-Cub farmhand, former-MVP, and had his career derailed due to injury.

Josh Donaldson

If you look at the career trajectory of Josh Donaldson, he went from a guy that was setting MLB records in salary arbitration increases to a guy that couldn’t get a multi-year contract due to his durability and decrease in performance. His performance was deeply tied to his health, similarly to Bryant, and he went from a huge offensive weapon that led his team to the playoffs to a shell of his former self and was traded for a player to be named later after having a down season due to a right shoulder injury.

This is a guy that won the AL MVP in 2015, hit 111 HR from 2015-17, had a .946 OPS over that time. He earned raises from $4.3 M in 2015 to 14.35 M in 2016. Then he broke a record by earning an increase to $21.8 M in 2017. This was a star player that was traded away for a PTBNL!?!?

Donaldson would earn a gentleman’s raise from the $21.8 M to $23 M in 2018.

After he was traded to Cleveland, Donaldson rebounded a little bit, posted a .920 OPS in his time there. He then had a poor showing in the playoffs that season and walked in free agency.

Over the 2019 offseason, Donaldson turned down an early offer and didn’t really see much long-term interest. He would go months without a real offer and eventually signed a one-year $23 million deal with the Atlanta Braves. In Atlanta, he would post a .900 OPS while belting 37 homers. He turned down the qualifying offer ($17.8 M) and entered free agency as a player about to turn 34.

There were several teams looking for third basemen last offseason, the Braves (with Donaldson leaving), Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, and Minnesota Twins were the most rumored clubs. Anthony Rendon landed the huge deal, which coming off a career year and incredible playoff which ended in a World Series. That left Donaldson as the next in line to get a deal. That is when he signed a four-year contract with the Twins for $92 million, which will take him to his age-37 season (there is a $16 million club option in 2024).

The Comparison

These two players are almost identical in terms of actual output. From OPS to wRC+, to fWAR, to homers and runs scored per season and then the injuries which derailed their future stardom and nearly unimaginable contract demands. These are two players that seemingly are cut from the same cloth.

Donaldson’s deal right now is a four-year pact, paying an AAV of $23 million. Donaldson signed that deal when he was 33 years old.

Donaldson is a little older than Bryant, as Bryant will be 30 when he is first eligible for free agency and Donaldson was 32. But the similarities are kinda crazy and you can’t deny them. Now, some of this has to go into your belief – or actually the Cubs belief as a fan’s belief really means nothing in contract negotiations or player projections. I’ve seen many people say in 2017 that Bryant will never be the player he was in 2016, except Bryant posted a higher OPS in 2017 than he did in 2016 and performed on an MVP level before his shoulder injury in 2018, and until his knee injury in 2019.

This is similar to Donaldson. Many have claimed he wouldn’t regain his form but was able to post a .900 OPS in 2019 (Bryant posted a .903, both considered the upper echelon of offensive production). Donaldson has performed much better than a lot of MLB stars in 2020, and I would bet Cubs fans would appreciate his .894 OPS and 6 HR compared to Bryant’s injury-plagued 2020 campaign.

This isn’t to say Donaldson is better than Bryant, in fact, the comparison chart above suggests they’re almost identical. Bryant has the edge in Batting AVG, on-base percentage, OPS, and runs scored, where Donaldson bests Bryant in slugging, wRC+, and fWAR – two of those a lot of fans believe to be voodoo magic stats and don’t give much credit to anyways.

Sculpting a Kris Bryant Contract, now…

This was a different conversation after the end of the 2019 season. Bryant, regardless of what a faction of Cubs fans believe, posted a hell of a season in 2019. In fact, in the 100 games between April 11th through August 19th, 2019, Bryant posted a .301/.399/.556 with 22 homers, 26 doubles, and 78 runs scored. He of course injured his knee around the All Star Game (which if you forgot he was apart of) and eventually needed to take time off because of his knee injury. That suggests he played 25ish games with a bad knee and still performed at an extremely high level.

Bryant will become a free agent after the 2021 season. He is earning $18.6 million (not really since it is prorated in 2020) and will likely get a small gentleman’s increase for the 2021 season. Usually, there are fairly accurate projections out on MLB Trade Rumors, however, I don’t know if the shortened season will impact their ability to accurately project 2021 salaries.

Not only will teams need to adjust budgets due to no ticket revenue in 2020, and quite honestly an outlook of maybe 25% attendance in 2021 as COVID-19 isn’t going away anytime soon. How will that affect salaries? How will teams look at free agency? How much will this season, which has seen many star players struggle mightily, affect arbitration?

I’d suggest that Bryant’s salary for the 2021 season will fall around $20-21 million. This will be a small increase, which players just tend to get in the arbitration process. I know a lot of fans will be in an uproar already about that, but they just don’t understand the process.

If the Cubs were interested, and thus far they have NOT offered Bryant an extension, but if they were… I would mold it around the Donaldson deal. Find an AAV that falls somewhere in the $20-23 million range. Since Bryant will be 30 as he hits free agency, I’d expect this to be somewhere in the six-year range. I would provide Bryant two separate player options, one at year two and one at year three of the deal, ensuring that if he returns to form he can opt-out to land that mega-deal he seemed to be on track for. I would also add a team option in 2027, which would be Bryant’s age 35 season.

That puts this deal in the $126 to $138 million range. This is a far cry from the potential north of $200 million deal that was passed around. This type of deal will ensure Bryant doesn’t go through the free agency process, it makes this an affordable deal for the Cubs, and it provides both player and team safety nets in case Bryant performs as he has shown he’s capable of when not injured.

Oh yeah, Scott Boras… yes, he will fight for every penny for his clients, but ultimately, he works for the player and not the other way around. Bryant has publicly stated this on a number of occasions. He has been adamant that he and Scott have discussed what he wants to do time and time again and Boras has told him that if he wants to be in Chicago he will do everything in his power to try and make that happen.

Now, to do that the Cubs have to play their part too. They can’t just sign blank checks ala Andre Dawson any longer. So the Cubs have to actually sit at the table and actually attempt to work something out. I’ve said this before, if they do or if they don’t, will show you what they think will happen with the rest of Bryant’s career. There’s a lot of folks out there that believe he doesn’t project well into his 30s, maybe the Cubs have that same belief? Personally, I see his work ethic (and potentially some stubbornness in not sitting out when he is initially hurt) and believe he will continue to push himself.

The next offseason will tell you a lot about what the next five or six years of Cubs baseball will look like. There is a lot of money coming off the books, but there are a lot of in-house players that are expecting new money. I’ll make sure to jump into their finances again pretty soon.