We take Kyle Hendricks for granted
Don’t worry, I’m not going to make the case that Kyle Hendricks is the best pitcher in the game, league, or even on the Cubs. I won’t claim he’s the most valuable to the team.
However, because of how much, I feel, us Cubs fans take the righty for granted, I wanted to dedicate a post to show people not familiar with him that he’s been more than solid – especially given his role as the “five starter.”
What Kyle Hendricks has brought to the Cubs since his rookie season in 2014 can only be described as consistency. Sure, you might click the hyperlink and see his 2015 ERA nearly touch the 4-mark and think, “This guy is a moron!” I assure you that his peripherals have been much better and like I just said: consistent.
In 2014, Hendricks posted a 3.32 FIP along with 3.13 K:BB ratio in his 80 innings of work. Along with his other numbers, FanGraphs said he worth 1.5 wins that season. No fast forward to 2015 where his ERA sat a 3.95 in 180 innings, but his FIP hit 3.36 and his H/9 raised by only .02. Hendricks did see an increase in his BB:9 by .5, but struck out three more hitters per nine innings with the increased workload. His fWAR was a nice 3.4 in his 32 starts.
To give you an idea of just how well the 26-year old is throwing this season, he’s already accumulated a 2.0 fWAR in 16 starts. That puts him on pace for another 32 starts and a 4.0 fWAR.
He’s increased his LOB% by four points this season compared to 2015, while also raising his GB% and in affect lowering his HR/FB. Hendricks’ strikeout rate is down by about the same amount of decimal points as his walk rate has increased, but his BABIP against sits at .250 because of the incredibly soft contact rate he has allowed to opposing batters. His FIP is currently at 3.45.
As you can see, Hendricks has maintained a consistent FIP (for those who may not know or have forgotten, FIP measures what a pitcher can actually control – K, BB, HR) through his first few major league seasons while finding the balance between his other peripheral numbers. He’s been consistently getting better.
Every time he goes out to the mound, I know we’re going to get 6 solid innings out of him. That led me to think how many quality starts he has earned. (Disclaimer: I know people don’t tend to trust the quality start stat because 6 innings and 3 earned runs comes out to a 4.50 ERA. However, the average ERA in quality starts comes in below 2.00.)
I was shocked to see that Hendricks has only received 8 quality starts, which is half of his total games started in 2016. Then that got me thinking: Maddon usually pulls him rather early and he hardly gets through a complete six innings, despite him averaging almost exactly 6 innings per start. That complete game a couple weeks ago sure helped that number out.
Something I think has contributed to his success this season, and something I’ve been wanting him to do, is throwing a higher percentage of fastballs and changeups. He’s essentially abandoned his cutter (12.4% in 2014, 4.6% in 2015) and is throwing his curveball at a lesser rate as well this season. Analysts who have seen Hendricks pitch even a few times knows he has one of the better changeups in the game, which says a lot because his average fastball velocity is around 89 mph.
So, as the point of this post was to show how much we might take Kyle Hendricks for granted, let’s remember how young he is and how much control the Cubs still have on the starting pitcher. He may only have 61 career starts under his belt, but I have a feeling we’re going to be knowing what we’re getting from Hendricks through his Cubs’ career – and I hope that’s for a long time.
*Featured image is courtesy of CubsRelated.com
