What to Expect When Expecting: 2019 Cubs Starting Pitching

There has been a lot of rage over projections this offseason, and the one we as Chicago Cubs fans are upset over is PECOTA. The biggest reasoning that any system uses when predicting that the Cubs won’t be in contention in 2019 is because of their pitching staff. The idea is Jon Lester and Cole Hamels are old, Yu Darvish is a wild card, Jose Quintana has given if’y results since coming to the Northside, and no ratings or projection system believes in soft-tossing Kyle Hendricks.

Age is in the arm of the be-thrower

The simple fact of the matter is, father time isn’t on the side of Lester or Hamels. Lester and Hamels are in their age 35 seasons, and pitchers just don’t fair well once they hit 35 years of age. MLB’s Anthony Castrovince’s wrote an article showing the best seasons from pitchers over the age of 35 and the list isn’t very long. Here’s the list:

• 2018, Justin Verlander, 35 yrs old, 2.52 ERA
• 1980, Rudy May, 35 yrs old, 2.46 ERA
• 1980, Don Sutton, 35 yrs old, 2.20 ERA
• 1987, Nolan Ryan, 40 yrs old, 2.76 ERA
• 1991, Dennis Martinez, 37 yrs old, 2.39 ERA
• 1998, Roger Clemens, 35 yrs old, 2.65 ERA
• 1999, Randy Johnson, 35 yrs old, 2.48 ERA
• 2000, Kevin Brown, 35 yrs old, 2.58 ERA
• 2001, Randy Johnson, 37 yrs old, 2.49 ERA
• 2002, Randy Johnson, 38 yrs old, 2.32 ERA
• 2005, Roger Clemens, 42 yrs old, 1.87 ERA

When looking at the list, the one thing that immediately pops out at me is – power arms. Outside of May, Sutton, and Martinez, every pitcher on the list is a power arm. Outside of May, there isn’t another pitcher that profiles similarly to Hamels or Lester. You would think that softer-throwing pitchers would age better, less wear and tear on their arms, and they typically succeed throw command, location, and just being smarter.

But it looks like the opposite is true? Throwing harder likely gives a pitcher more room for error. I mean, think about it. If you throw the ball 96 mph and the other guy is throwing 91, 96 is a much harder ball to hit.

So from this standpoint, and looking at the 11 examples above (from only eight pitchers), objectively you have to understand why a computer is spitting out poor projections from either pitcher.

Yu are going to see a lot more of Yu

I was excited that the Cubs signed Yu Darvish last offseason. This wasn’t just because I believed he would add a lot to a talented rotation, but because I could use his name for titles like the above.

Coming into 2018, there were real questions about Darvish’s ability to stay on the field for 30 plus games. Talent is one thing, but the best ability is availability, and Darvish has had a hard time remaining available throughout his career.

There’s also the question on just how much longer will his arm hold up? Darvish threw 1,268.1 innings in Japan before jumping to the MLB. Then Darvish added 832.1 innings in America, before coming to the Cubs. So at this point in his career, he has thrown 2,100.2 innings in his career. This is only 260 fewer innings than Lester, who is two and a half years older than he is.

There has been a lot of exciting talk around Darvish this spring. From him effortlessly throwing 94-97, his declaration of having the best stuff of his life, and the sense that he’s more comfortable here – should expectations be risen?

There will certainly be a lot of Cubs fans unfairly waiting for the other shoe to drop with Darvish. While you can question if he has the ability to remain healthy for 162 game schedules, but it’s both ignorant and unfair to question his toughness.

Will the real Q-tana please stand up?

Jose Quintana has long thought to be a tough-loss starter. One that didn’t get run support while pitching for the Chicago White Sox, and believed to be much better than his record ever indicated. Quintana has long been the poster boy for pitcher records don’t matter.

Now, we can get into a long debate over W/L records in pitchers, but that’s not what I want to do here. I am typically on the side of the argument in saying that it doesn’t matter, but in Quintana you have a pitcher that for some reason has a hard time finding wins.

I don’t know why, or what causes it, but while W/L records may not matter, there can be something said for guys that might not know how to win.

Typically, pitchers see a small reduction in ERA when jumping from the AL to the NL. This comes as a function of the pitcher batting and having a spot in the lineup where pitchers can nearly guarantee an out. In Quintana’s case, his ERA has jumped 42 points when he came to the Cubs (3.51 ERA in the AL, 3.93 ERA in the NL).

Quintana is just an interesting case, as it seems like it’s either or with him. Last season, in wins, he owned a 1.56 ERA. In his losses, Quintana had a 7.59 ERA. He was either really good, or really bad. Even in his eight no-decisions, he was just about an average pitcher (4.24 ERA). The shining star in this conversation is, I don’t think there’s any team in baseball with a fifth starter (which Quintana likely will be) as talented as he is. In a spot where you are usually looking for someone to fill five innings an outing, Quintana is head and toes above the rest of baseball.

Hendo don’t translate

There isn’t a projection system around that likes Kyle Hendricks. Just looking at the projections Fangraphs posts, then most favorable projection is Fans 6 where they predict a 3.33 ERA and 3.73 FIP.

The problem for Hendricks is, he doesn’t show very well on a lot of advanced metrics. xFIP is typically a bit harsh on him, and his 2016 season is a perfect example. While Hendricks pitched his way to a 2.13 ERA, which led the league, his xFIP was nearly a run and a half higher. This is because he doesn’t have that swing-and-miss stuff that a lot of others possess. So when you rely heavily on defensive ability, range, and potentially luck, it is tough to project him without taking certain liberties that have little factual relevance to a computer program.

When I look at Hendricks I feel he has the least concerns or worry. I think he is the quintessential example of why the best way to scout or judge a player is through a perfect marriage of both; analytics and the eye test.

Hendricks relies on command and elusiveness. When he is throwing his fastball at 89 mph, and then his change-up is coming from the exact same arm motion and arm slot, but 9-10 mph slower, he’s near impossible to hit consistently. All of his pitches have plus movement, and his effortless delivery provides simple and easy mechanics. All of this lends to him being one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to hit.

What to expect when expecting?

So there is a lot of reason for cause when talking about the Cubs starting rotation. Age, health, unpredictability, and just not knowing how to project performance. But I will say this, and it shouldn’t be controversial.

The Chicago Cubs have the deepest rotation in baseball.

This is a much different statement than they have the best rotation. The Cubs have four starters that have been the opening day starter for a team. The fifth starter, could have been the club’s ace in any of the past three seasons. Then there is Tyler Chatwood, which it is way too early to say he’s fixed his command issues, but the early results are encouraging. They also have the man that recorded the most important save in Cubs history in Mike Montgomery. If there are health concerns or performance issues, it is nice that the Cubs have two guys that can be plugged into the rotation at a moments notice.

Before I give my expectation for the season, here is how the accepted projections believe they will do in 2019.

Jon Lester

	Projection	W	L	G	GS	IP	K9	BB9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	THE BAT	10	12	32	32	189.0	7.66	3.49	0.300	4.64	4.75	–
2019	ATC	12	9	30	30	175.0	7.83	3.18	0.307	4.18	4.35	–
2019	Depth Charts	13	11	32	32	189.0	7.86	2.89	0.304	4.17	4.27	2.0
2019	Steamer	12	11	32	32	192.0	7.99	3.06	0.296	4.35	4.30	1.9
2019	Fans (6)	13	9	31	31	175.0	7.51	2.78	0.296	3.83	3.99	2.3
2019	ZiPS	12	9	29	29	165.1	7.73	2.98	0.3	3.97	4.23	1.8

Kyle Hendricks

	Projection	W	L	G	GS	IP	K9	BB9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	THE BAT	12	11	32	32	193.0	7.22	2.48	0.292	3.93	4.21	–
2019	ATC	13	9	31	31	186.0	7.59	2.24	0.297	3.72	3.88	–
2019	Depth Charts	13	10	32	32	193.0	7.52	2.27	0.303	3.88	3.99	2.6
2019	Steamer	12	10	32	32	194.0	7.49	2.36	0.299	4.04	4.03	2.6
2019	Fans (6)	13	9	30	30	183.0	7.48	2.02	0.289	3.33	3.73	3.0
2019	ZiPS	13	8	30	30	176.2	7.54	2.19	0.296	3.72	3.95	2.5

Cole Hamels

	Projection	W	L	G	GS	IP	K9	BB9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	THE BAT	11	10	29	29	173.0	8.77	3.59	0.300	4.30	4.50	–
2019	ATC	12	9	30	30	180.0	8.62	3.19	0.299	3.86	4.10	–
2019	Depth Charts	11	8	29	29	173.0	8.49	3.14	0.297	3.84	4.05	2.2
2019	Steamer	11	9	29	29	172.0	8.93	3.16	0.299	3.97	3.95	2.4
2019	Fans (6)	12	9	30	30	181.0	8.50	2.98	0.293	3.61	3.87	2.6
2019	ZiPS	11	7	28	28	167.1	8.07	3.12	0.285	3.71	4.16	1.9

Yu Darvish

	Projection	W	L	G	GS	IP	K9	BB9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	THE BAT	8	8	24	24	138.0	10.32	3.49	0.298	3.97	4.13	–
2019	ATC	9	8	25	25	141.0	10.32	3.25	0.307	3.85	4.02	–
2019	Depth Charts	10	7	24	24	138.0	10.30	3.15	0.306	3.76	3.74	2.4
2019	Steamer	9	7	24	24	139.0	10.18	3.04	0.291	3.77	3.66	2.6
2019	Fans (6)	12	8	26	26	140.0	10.35	3.09	0.302	3.67	3.76	2.3
2019	ZiPS	9	6	22	22	124.1	10.42	3.26	0.306	3.76	3.83	2.0

Jose Quintana

	Projection	W	L	G	GS	IP	K9	BB9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	THE BAT	11	11	32	32	188.0	8.11	3.15	0.305	4.18	4.24	–
2019	ATC	12	10	31	31	179.0	8.56	3.04	0.306	3.89	3.99	–
2019	Depth Charts	14	9	32	32	188.0	8.47	2.94	0.306	3.78	3.85	2.8
2019	Steamer	12	10	32	32	186.0	8.5	2.99	0.296	3.89	3.95	2.6
2019	Fans (6)	12	9	31	31	180.0	8.50	3	0.299	3.75	3.82	2.7
2019	ZiPS	14	8	30	30	174.0	8.43	2.9	0.304	3.67	3.76	2.8

Here’s the deal

As you can see, none of the predictions are crazy about any Cubs stating pitcher, all for the reasons above. Either age, or injury history, or questionable performance history. All these factor into projecting future performance.

Here’s the thing though, expecting all the Cubs pitchers to have poor seasons just doesn’t really make sense. Here is a realistic projection for each starter.

	Projection	W	L	G	GS	IP	K9	BB9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	Jon Lester	14	10	32	32	181.0	7.85	2.98	0.304	3.48	3.63	3.1
2019	Kyle Hendricks	15	7	30	30	188.0	7.42	2.02	0.277	3.12	3.33	4.0
2019	Cole Hamels	12	11	31	31	191.0	8.79	3.01	0.287	3.69	3.95	3.0
2019	Yu Darvish	10	10	28	28	168.0	11.03	3.50	0.309	3.74	3.34	2.6
2019	Jose Quintana	13	10	31	31	186.0	8.71	2.77	0.281	3.89	3.82	1.6