What to Expect When Expecting: Cubs Relief Pitching
This is the second part in a series of detailing expectations of the Chicago Cubs. If you didn’t catch the first installment, here is where I covered the Cubs starting rotation. Much like the Cubs starting rotation, much of baseball has very little expectations for the Cubs bullpen. Whether unproven, inconsistent, or injury prone – there isn’t a lot of love for this group.
And, similarly to the starting pitchers, this group is likely being disrespected mostly for reasons outside of their control. Some warranted, some not.
Injuries
Mike Tyson said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth,” and the biggest punch in the mouth for GM’s are injuries. Injuries are part of the process in professional sports, but some teams plan for them a little better than most.
The Cubs have a lot of pitching depth. There are six or seven Cubs relievers that could be regulars on other teams and will rack up some rewards miles between Iowa and Chicago this year.
It isn’t the depth that causes concern when talking about the Cubs relievers, it is the potential injuries to their top-level relievers that do.
Last season Brandon Morrow was one of the games best closers, until he was hurt. And then he injured himself again and was out the remainder of the season. Carl Edwards Jr was coming along fairly ok, until he had some shoulder inflammation, then didn’t have *it* mentally the rest of 2018. Pedro Strop, the rock of the Cubs pen, also went down with a hamstring injury late in 2018.
Moving ahead to 2019 and Morrow will begin the year on the Injured List. Strop just injured his hammy again. Edwards is working a new delivery but who knows where his head is at the moment.
When the top guys go down you are asking others to step up into unfamiliar roles. Then you are bringing in guys from Triple-A to fill in the gaps.
Headspace
Carl Edwards Jr is one of baseball’s most talented relief pitchers. He just is. He throws high 90’s effortlessly. His curve is wicked. But at some point in the 2017 playoffs against the Washington Nationals he just lost it. Nevermind, it wasn’t at some point… It was right here…
But he appeared to rebound in early 2018, owning a 2.88 ERA in his first 25 appearances on the season. But in September he was a mess. Pitching to the tune of a 5.14 ERA, and hitters owned a .353 babip against him during that time. Most notably, Edwards gave up 12 of his 32 walks on the season in September, or nearly 40% of all his walks.
Another fella that has questions is Tyler Chatwood. He had been mostly fine in Spring Training, but in his fourth appearance he walked three in 1.1 innings.
Chatwood, like Edwards, has worked on a new delivery for 2019. Chatwood’s change was to reduce unnecessary movements, which had given positive results in most of his appearances.
Now that we are in the third week of spring, and things are ramping up, pitchers are using more of their repertoire. You would want to see Chatwood start to showcase better stuff as things move along, and not revert to his old command issues.
Match-ups
Randy Rosario should be the main LOOGY (left-handed one out guy). In 2018, he owned left-handed hitters, allowing a .174 avg and a .597 OPS. Righties on the other hand hit .321 with a .801 OPS against Rosario. Mike Montgomery will be a long relief type, and spot starter, and Brian Duensing was killed vs right-handed hitters (1.008 OPS) and was mildly effective vs lefties (.689 OPS).
Steve Cishek was very solid against righties, but left-handers hit him pretty hard (nearly a 200 point increase in OPS). Brad Brach was also better while pitching to right-handed hitters than lefties, but Cishek has earned the higher leverage spots. Finally, there is Brandon Kintzler, who was unimpressive when he came to Chicago, and his 1.242 WHIP wasn’t breaking records in Washington either.
We should assume Edwards Jr, Strop, and Morrow will be slated for the high-leverage and eighth and ninth innings. Rosario should earn the high-leverage spots verse lefties. Cishek could push Edwards for the high-leverage spot against tough right-handed hitters. Brach should leap Kintzler for that next spot, leaving Brandon for most of the mop-up duties.
Projections
Assuming there’re no changes to the pen, which is unlikely, I’m not in love with what they have right now. Outside of the top four guys, there isn’t a lot to be excited about. Even with the top guys there are several questions. Here is how ZiPS sees the Cubs relievers:
Tyler Chatwood ~ 5.10 ERA 24 games (22 starts)
Brian Duensing ~ 4.74 ERA 50 games
Brandon Kintzler ~ 3.90 ERA 60 games
Brad Brach ~ 3.41 ERA 63 games
Mike Montgomery ~ 4.05 ERA 35 games (16 starts)
Steve Cishek ~ 3.39 ERA 68 games
Randy Rosario ~ 4.61 ERA 57 games
Carl Edwards Jr. ~ 3.67 ERA 62 games
Pedro Strop ~ 3.48 ERA 58 games
Brandon Morrow ~ 3.38 ERA 36 saves 40 games
Here is how I see things playing out.
Tyler Chatwood ~ 4.24 ERA 34 games (12 starts)
Brian Duensing ~ 4.45 ERA 35 games
Brandon Kintzler ~ 4.12 ERA 60 games
Brad Brach ~ 3.75 ERA 58 games
Mike Montgomery ~ 3.38 ERA 39 games (18 starts)
Steve Cishek ~ 3.45 ERA 67 games
Randy Rosario ~ 3.12 ERA 63 games
Carl Edwards Jr. ~ 3.01 ERA 62 games
Pedro Strop ~ 2.88 ERA 14 saves 64 games
Brandon Morrow ~ 2.78 ERA 28 saves 37 games
I think the top guys will produce, but the other end will likely underperform. I do think the Cubs will make a move, or three, during the season. The change will help the pen and will be similar to the moves they made in 2018. I also think guys like Alec Mills, James Norwood, and Justin Hancock will provide positive performances in 2019. We could also see guys like Dillon Maples and Duane Underwood Jr make appearances as well.
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