Yelich and the Brewers Helped the Cubs

This time last year Colorado Rockies star third baseman, Nolan Arenado signed an eight-year $255 million extension. That deal put thoughts as to what a Kris Bryant extension would look like. As a premier talent in the game, Bryant was rated as the eighth-best player in baseball after the 2018 season, dropped to 32nd in 2019, and was rated the 34th best player in baseball for the upcoming 2020 season. This after having a rebound season from his 2018 injuries.

That Arenado deal was the mark in which a future Bryant deal would be measured. This was a contract that would pay a $32 million AAV, and for all intents and purposes, this was where a Bryant contract was moving towards.

“Yes. Totally,” Bryant said. “You always look at what the other people at your position do in terms of their contracts. And you compare yourself accordingly. Obviously, Nolan, he’s a great player. He’s been doing it for a long time. Super consistent. Tons of passion playing the game. So, it’s nice to see another third baseman sign for that much.”

Bryant was excited because he was on a trajectory to make that type of coin. Fast-forward another year, and while Bryant posted an OPS over .900 (again) and an fWAR of 4.8, the Kris Bryant stock began to dip.

Some of that was because the Cubs fell out of contention for the first time since Bryant was a Cub. Some of that was overall inconsistencies that affected every player in the Cubs clubhouse. Some of it was because of some nagging injuries in 2019 that limited his power and the idea that Bryant needs to be as close to healthy as possible to be truly great. And in a 162 game season, no ballplayer is truly healthy in September.

The Milwaukee Brewers stole the 2018 National League Central crown from the Cubs on the back of Christian Yelich. He posted a monster year and that was especially true in the second half. He finished the 2018 season with a 1.000 OPS, which was helped with a .357/.435/.704 slash line in the second half with 25 bombs and 76 runs driven in.

Yelich was neck-in-neck for the NL MVP in 2019 with Cody Bellinger for much of the season. He had 44 homers with a 1.100 OPS up until September 10th. That’s when he busted his knee on a foul tip.

On Tuesday, the Brewers and Yelich agreed upon a seven-year extension for $188.5 million, which is added to the remaining $26.5 million that will be paid out this and next season ($12.5m 2020 and $14m in 2021). The new deal is a $26.9m AAV extension.

Yelich has catapulted himself from MLB’s 48th best player in 2018 to the league’s second-best in 2020. Bryant went from baseball’s seventh-best player in 2018 to it’s 34th-best in 2020.

There has been much fanfare over what a Kris Bryant extension should look like. Just a year ago I claimed that an extension for him should come in just above Arenado’s deal. After all, since Bryant has been in the big’s he has outperformed Arenado when accounting for fWAR and wRC+, two measured stats which show a player’s value and run creation worth.

With some of Bryant’s spring comments on a potential extension, a slippage of his place in the MLB-echelon, and this recent Yelich extension – I believe the Brewers and Yelich did the Cubs a favor.

Yelich is 28 years old and 90 days and wasn’t scheduled to hit free agency until 2022 at the earliest (he was under contract for 2020, 2021, and there was an option for 2022). Bryant is 28 years old and 60 days. Being a month apart, both players would have reached free agency in the same year and the same age. As much as it pains me to say this, Yelich leaped Bryant these past two seasons and is a more valuable player. Now, Bryant has the ability and potential to still be a top-five player in the league again (was fourth going into the 2017 season). But, he just hasn’t shown that since the 2017 season and those injuries have piled up on him.

Yelich’s discount (he certainly could have fetched an AAV of much more than $30 million a season) could prove to be a giant favor for the Cubs. Here a lot of people believed Bryant would be looking at a massive $30m AAV type of deal, but after this Yelich extension, it becomes a lot harder for Bryant or any other player in a similar age range to ask for more. While Bryant has done more over a longer stretch, players are paid for future performance more than the past in today’s game – which is especially true in Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer’s world.

The way Bryant responded to the rumors of him turning down a deal worth north of $200 million, made me think that he would absolutely consider a deal in that neighborhood.

“ ‘Well north of 200 million,’ yeah. No [laughing]. Where are those [numbers]? I’ve never seen them. Never. When that came out [a year ago] I was on the golf course with my dad, and I’m like, ‘What the heck is going on?’ AT the time I felt like I’m going to let this slide. There wasn’t trade rumors [like this year]. I mean, there were, but it wasn’t like, ‘Get rid of him; he doesn’t want to be here; he hates Chicago; he hates Theo; he hates the Cubs.’ Now I’m like, ‘I need to stick up [for myself]. I love everybody here. I love the city.”

Bryant has never even seen a potential contract extension, and it isn’t because his agent Scott Boras is holding out. Boras works for Bryant, and Bryant is demanding a part in his future. This leads me to believe, and it should lead everyone to believe, there hasn’t been one-single-formal-offer. Maybe conversations. A phone call here. Backroom talk there. But there has not been an offer. There has not been money talked about. There has not been a serious push from the Cubs to extend Bryant.

Sure, his agent will push and squeeze every last penny from an organization, but Bryant isn’t that greedy guy that is in it for just the money. If you really believe he is, you just haven’t paid a single once of attention to anything he’s stood for. Even further, Bryant couldn’t be more adamant that Boras works for Bryant – not the other way around – and Bryant will drive the decision on an extension.

With the Yelich extension, with these comments, and with the next era of Cubs baseball coming up faster than anticipated – the Cubs should absolutely take a stab at an extension today.

Offer Bryant an eight-year $200 million extension, now. Put him into a position to make a decision on his future. He wants to be here, he’s been adamant about his desire to remain a Chicago Cub. Catapulting off that Yelich extension, a $200 million offer isn’t offensive and is a great starting point. Have it kick in after the 2020 season, buying out his 2021 arbitration year which would likely be between $22 and $25 million a season anyways. This gives him a very respectable $25m AAV for as long as the Yelich deal.

Most importantly – it is 100% affordable for the Cubs.

We all understand that there will be a roster decision to be made, but locking in a piece as large as Bryant will help the roster form for the next six years. Plugging a deal of a similar price point for Javier Baez for a similar length becomes easier after the likes of Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood’s deals fall off the books. Now the Cubs are also free to explore extensions with Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras. With Marquee budgets hitting the revenue streams and Competitive Balance Tax thresholds increasing – they all start to become even more affordable if Bryant is locked in at $25 million a season as opposed to $35 million.

While the Brewers have won the week, the favor they might have provided the Cubs, in turn, might not be able to be measured. This all could end in a very favorable outcome for the Cubs, as long as everyone plays their cards right.