Your Trade Kris Bryant Opinion is Very Flawed
Look, I understand the idea, a little. You’re afraid of Kris Bryant leaving the Chicago Cubs and the organization being left with thousands of No. 17 jerseys that will be on clearance racks across Chicagoland. I can also understand the idea that Bryant isn’t “clutch” (which there really is no such things as clutch) and thus not worth the potential investment the Cubs will need to make to keep him.
But for crying out loud people, you’re seriously openly talking about trading the best player in the National League since the 2015 season!
I know I get up on a soapbox about Bryant, and I do get very opinionated on things I absolutely know to be correct. But, and I have to say this and it likely won’t come out right, you’re uninformed and using ridiculous bias when you suggest trading Bryant. I sincerely don’t mean that as harsh as it comes off. But it’s the truth.
Since Bryant has been in Chicago, he’s absolutely been the club’s best player. He’s been worth 6.1 more wins than the next best Cub, Anthony Rizzo. These aren’t opinions, this is using actual results and stats.
Now maybe you don’t agree with WAR or the many versions of it. Ok. He leads the club in wRC+ (by one over Rizzo), leads the team in batting average (.285), is second on the club in OBP (by 4 points under Rizzo), leads the team in slugging and OPS. He also leads the team in runs scored.
I know you’ll bring up RBI, but here’s the thing with those – they’re opportunity based. Look at Kyle Schwarber this season. Schwarber isn’t a better hitter than Kris Bryant, and he isn’t better than Bryant with RISP (Bryant is .260/.368/.519 vs .238/.346/.545 both have 8 HR). The difference is opportunity. Nearly 23% of Schwarber’s PA are with RISP and Bryant has seen those opportunities in 19% of his PA.
Also, there are times when a run belongs more to the guy that had a hit with a runner on first, that advanced the runner to third, than the guy that hit a sac fly to left with that runner on third. So, while scoring runs is important, and scoring more runs that the other team is the only way to win ballgames, the RBI isn’t a great individual stat to prove someone’s effectiveness.
I’m sure none of that explains why your thought of trading Bryant is flawed. I do hope it helped you understand, a little bit, why Bryant should be valued however.
I do understand the idea, or fear, of him walking when his deal is up. Here’s the thing though, you can say that about every player on this roster, but the only one fans tend to suggest trading is Bryant. You know, the team’s best player.
Now, what if I told you that 90% of players that reach their free agent year, leave their organization. That’s a truth, and still fans only point to Scott Boras as an agent that encourages his clients to test free agency. Isn’t that a little picking and choosing your arguments? And isn’t it doing so with extreme bias?
Now, as far as trading him?
We have to first define who would be interested in Bryant. The answer is likely every team besides maybe the Colorado Rockies. But which of those teams have the assets to actually begin a conversation?
Just a handful, maybe three or four?
Of those teams, who will be willing to give up those assets to acquire Bryant? None.
It isn’t because Bryant isn’t worth it, he is. We’ve already demonstrated that he’s the NL’s best player since 2015 and he’s been the best player on either the first or second best team in the National League (stupid Los Angeles Dodgers) over the past four seasons. So what team has enough to start that conversation?
What would the haul be? Well, to start, the Cubs would need someone to play third base. That guy is NOT David Bote, maybe they shift Javier Baez there and decide to retain Addison Russell and Nico Hoerner and let them play up the middle. But can you imagine that world? The world where the Cubs choose to trade squeaky clean Bryant but keep domestic abuser Russell!? That’s a PR nightmare worthy of a Phil Rogers tweet.
The Cubs would need an MLB ready guy to man the hot-corner starting in 2020. This is still a team in their window, even if other teams are getting closer to them (or passed them?). Then they will need like four more prospects, with at minimum two of them being top 25 and likely at least a top 5 prospect. Is that sexy enough for Bryant? I’ll tell you this, it doesn’t drastically improve the Cubs overall system.
Looking at the top systems in baseball, there really aren’t good pairings for the Cubs. San Diego has the top system, but they also have Manny Machado and his giant contract. He isn’t being moved, and you don’t invest in Bryant to play him in LF 145 games a season. The Dodgers have a bunch of guys, but do they trade Gavin Lux, which would be yet another middle infielder? Even with his top 10 rating, that doesn’t help the Cubs.
I know there are teams that send huge hauls for rentals, All. The. Time. But those are deals that have a top 50 paired with several fringe guys with upside. There just isn’t a deal that makes any sense, and if you think there is one you’re likely undervaluing Bryant.
Look, I could be wrong, but typically when it comes to judge of talent and putting myself in the seats of the Cubs front office, I’m rarely wrong. There just aren’t attractive options that would provoke a very smart front office into trading their best player while they are still in a win-now mode.
Until you can consistently show real examples of deals that are enough for Bryant, replaces his production now, and doesn’t interrupt the organization’s ability to win today, then your idea is just flawed.
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Everyone gets hurt in baseball when you’re a heavy hitter.