You’re Wrong, Jake Arrieta got a Sweet Deal
Via NBC Sports
First, I’m not crazy about people who bad mouth athletes for trying to earn as mich as they can. Their careers are short and with the work and sacrifice they put into the game should be able to benefit as they see fit (not how fans see fit). It’s strange to me that because one roots for a person, they feel like they have the right to tell them how much money they can earn. But I digress…
I’ve seen a lot coming out on how Scott Boras screwed Jake Arrieta. That thought stems from the idea that Jake turned down the identical offer the Cubs offered Yu Darvish. But in the days following Jon Heyman’s Report, we learned it didn’t exactly go down the way he (or Boras) reported it. In fact, outside of a friendly phone call, the report is mostly erroneous. Irregardless, the Cubs signed Darvish to a six-year $126 million deal, and Jake left to sign with Philadelphia.
Cubs fans like to point to that deal as what could have been for Jake, and him signing a three-year deal for $75 million cost him money. At face value, they’re right (however that offer was never on the table for Jake and Jake’s deal isn’t three years).
Yu’s contract is structured in a way which pays him $25M in 2018, $20M in 2019, $22M in 2020, $22M in 2021, $19M in 2022, and $18M in 2023. Darvish can op out after the 2019 season, and if he pitches as well as some believe, you could expect that he will.
Jake’s deal is structured to pay him $30M in 2018, $25M in 2019, $20M in 2020. Jake can opt out after the 2019 season, and the Phillies can void the opt out and enact a two year deal with a $20M salary in 2021 and 2022.
If both players opt out, which would happen if they pitch well enough to out-earn the remaining salary. This is more likely in Jake’s case since he would only have $20 million remaining (if the Phillies didn’t void the opt out). But let’s just look at those first two seasons. Jake’s $55 million is better than Yu’s $45 million, and then you’d assume there’s another multi-year deal on the backend of those opt outs. Now, who knows what free agency looks like in two seasons, next year will see a record number of dollars being paid out, but would 2019-20 return to regular levels or will it be similar to this offseason? It could be a gamble, and a 33 and 34 year old pitcher might not find a sweet multi-year deal with $20 million AAV’s.
For Jake the question would be simple, if the opt out exists, will he be able to earn more than $20 million. If the answer is yes, then he hits free agency looking for another three-year deal. For Yu, he would need to believe he can earn more than $81 million over the next four years, which isn’t very likely. Now Jake would be able to earn $81 million on the open market, especially not as a 34 year old, but if John Lackey was able to land a two-year $32 million deal as a 37 year old, Arrieta will find really good money in 2019 as well.
Sure Yu’s deal is worth more if they both play it out till the end, but it isn’t a season bad or different as you originally thought. Yu effectively has a six-year deal for $126 million, paying him an AAV of $21 million. Jake has a five-year deal (if Philadelphia voids the opt out) for $115 million, paying him an AAV of $23 million. Yu got another year on his deal than Jake, but he’s also a year younger than Jake.
Think what you will, but Scott Boras didn’t screw Jake over.
