Baez the Vaccine Advocate Reveals Cubs and Agents Still Talking Extension
MLB players are beginning to get their COVID vaccines, and not only is it a smart idea, the more players to receive the vaccine will allow for more freedoms to return. Currently, players are not able to eat or drink on flights, they cannot congregate in hotels or other indoor spaces, they can’t even use things like Uber or Lyft right now. These restrictions will loosen once 85% of the players are vaccinated.
So it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that Chicago Cubs shortstop, Javier Baez was quick to get the vaccine, which he confirmed on Monday.
But outside the vaccine comments, Baez also suggested that he was watching his friend, Francisco Lindor’s contract negotiations closely. As one of baseball’s best shortstops, Fernando Tatis Jr’s and Lindor’s contract means a lot of the others. While Baez had been consistent in telling the Cubs that once the regular season started he wanted to stop extension talks, he did confirm there are still conversations between the two sides.
Javy Baez on Lindor's contract: "It helps everyone. He opens the door for a lot of people."
Baez says his agents and Cubs are talking but nothing more than that right now.— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) April 5, 2021
One of the people the Lindor deal helps is Baez. The problem is, will the Cubs make that kind of investment in Baez, who outside his 2018 and 2019 campaigns, has been a below league average offensive player? Additionally, if Baez doesn’t return to the 2018-19 form, will he be willing to accept something closer to his actual value?
Javier Baez on Francisco Lindor $341 million contract impacting his free agent year. “ I have to get my offense back. I am one of the top. (( shortstops) I think the other 30 teams know what I can do. I am relaxing and playing my game” Baez said he hopes to remain a Cub.
— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) April 5, 2021
Baez’s actual value to a team – in terms of win/loss – and his (and even some fan’s) perceived value are often disjointed. Baez has seen himself as a Lindor type of player. When you compare the two players though, Lindor has been the best SS in baseball (per fWAR) since the 2017 season (when Baez became a fulltime player) while Baez is ranked ninth.
- Javier Baez (AVG season): .272 AVG, .309 OBP, .503 SLG, .812 OPS, 24 HR, 74 RBI, 3.0 fWAR
- Francisco Lindor: .276 AVG, .349 OBP, .503 SLG, .852 OPS 28 HR, 71 RBI, 4.9 fWAR
To top things off, the least valuable season Lindor ever had was his rookie season ($31.4m) where Baez’s value has been all over the place and has recorded several negative value campaigns.
But is there a serious conversation to be had around paying for past production over the idea of paying for future production?
Lindor came to the bigs with the expectation of being a great player from the jump. He had all the tools and was an all-around polished ballplayer. Baez didn’t have that same fanfare. Yes, there were Cubs fans that were excited about Baez as we heard some heroics in the minors. Baez always shows those signs that there is something extra he is able to do or produce. His ceiling is so incredibly high, but that floor is bottom of the barrel low. An example of such was his 2013 season. He launched 34 homers in 130 games across High-A and Double-A, but, struck out 147 times in those 130 games.
When he was called up in the 2014 season, Baez would strike out 94 times in 52 games. This was on top of the 104 Ks in 130 Triple-A games in the season. So in 663 plate appearances in the 2014 season (in both MLB and AAA) he struck out 198 times.
And that is really the issue with Baez, striking out. Now, I am fine with players striking out (in most situations). There is, at times, more value in going down on strikes than there is in grounding out to second. Now, of course, hitting the ball gives you a much higher probability of creating something positive, but I’d rather see someone strike out than bounce into an inning-ending double-play. But, the issue with Baez is he doesn’t get on unless he strikes a ball. Guys like Adam Dunn struck out a lot, but you could consistently live with it because he was walking and then would also hit the 475-foot homer. Baez strikes out, every once in a while hits a 425-foot homer, but doesn’t get on unless he hits his way on. Which, if this was a backend of the order type of guy, you can accept it. But he is in the middle of the order, expected to produce runs, but strikes out 5.5 times as much as he walks.
Just look at his 2018 season, which was Baez’s best season by far. He got on-base 214 times in 2018, 176 of those times were via the hit. Someone like Lindor, his worst season was 2017 and he reached 244 times with 178 of those being hits. Baez, undoubtedly, would be much better if he would just take a walk.
I would love for Baez to remain a Cub for a very long time. I just cannot find a path to do so if he is expecting anything close to the type of money Lindor is getting – even if it were for a shorter period of time.
