Cubs Are OK, But There Are Reasons To Worry And I’ll Explain

The Chicago Cubs boast the third most prolific offense, the stingiest defense, and second-best pitching staff in baseball. Their offense (14.0 WAR) is rated just behind the Houston Astros (14.2), they strike out at a 21% rate, the 10th best rate in baseball and get on base at a higher rate than any team in baseball.

What is reassuring is, they’ve done this with little help from Anthony Rizzo until recently, and now with a struggling Kris Bryant. If the team has any stretch of play where those two are hitting at the same time – watch out National League.

BABIP

If you’ve followed me, I’m a big proponent of babip. I think it’s a great measuring stick that helps explain why something happens. This is just the batting average of balls in play (minus home runs) and is compiled of components of skill, defense, and luck. Since luck is a big part of baseball, this stat at least attempts to quantify it. The golden rule of babip is that over the course of 162 games, the number will always normalize around .300.

Offensively, the Cubs have a .311 babip. This suggests that you can expect their offense to perform similarly throughout the remainder of the season. Sure, they could normalize to the mean, but there’s very little difference, across a full season (or even half season) between .300 and .311.

The Cubs pitching staff has a babip (allowed) of .260. This is a bit worrisome as it suggests the Cubs staff is primed to start allowing more batted balls to fall for hits. Now, the Cubs defense is very good and their middle defense is stronger than any team in baseball. Their outfield defense has been much improved, specifically due to Kyle Schwarber’s transformation into a viable left fielder.

The Cubs .260 babip is the lowest since the 2016 Cubs, where they held a .255 babip throughout the season. That staff was assisted by a history-making defense though, and I believe people generally felt better about Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, and Jason Hammels than they do about Lester, Hendricks, Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, and Tyler Chatwood.

While the defense and staff can continue to gobble up balls and limit hard contact, there should be an expectation that they revert to the mean a bit.

Slugging

The Cubs offense is “slugging” but it isn’t hitting the ball out of the park. They are currently ninth in baseball with a .419 SLG, but 23rd in home runs be 12th in doubles. The factor that’s keeping them afloat is actually triples – the hardest hit to get in the game.

Currently, the Cubs have hit 19 triples on the season, something that isn’t typical or repeatable. They only had 29 all of last season, and 30 in 2016. While Wrigley Field is in the top third in allowing triples, the roster is not.

I do feel rather positive that the team’s power numbers will improve. Rizzo has been hitting with more power lately. He will end up in the 31-32 home run range this year. Javier Baez looks to be about to break the 30 HR mark for the first time in his career. Kyle Schwarber has been stymied of late, but he’s bound for a 30 homer season himself. Each of these hitters will undoubtedly begin to hit more doubles as the season progresses as well.

Kris Bryant

The troubling hitter is Bryant, which I detailed some of his struggles here. But there’s more happening. Here is how Bryant rates against other third baggers across the year.

HR – 15th
R – 7th
RBI – 14th
AVG – 8th
SLG – 8th

Now, a lot of this is directly tied to his recent struggles, but as the season sits today, remove the names and he’s performed like an average third baseman. This is a spot in which a team traditionally gets a lot of offense.

I don’t know what is going on with Kris, and I’m actually optimistic that once it clicks again he’ll carry the club. But whether that beanball affected him or there’s something else going on, Bryant is a top two 3B in the league and the Cubs need that production.

Clutchness

When you talk to some baseball statisticians, they’ll tell you there’s no such thing a clutch player. They’ll tell you that since these “clutch” moments are such a small sample size, they would adjust towards a player’s career norms when given enough chances.

Theoretically, I don’t know if they’re right or wrong. I do know that the current Cubs team struggles to score when faced with RISP and this has been a theme for a while now.

Runners left in scoring position per game
2018 – 4.08 (30th)
2017 – 3.51 (25th)
2016 – 3.87 (29th)
2015 – 3.67 (27th)

Now, these can certainly be coincidental. The Cubs average 13.47 baserunners per game. They also lead baseball with a .339 OBP. While this could contradict an earlier comment on things normalizing over a big enough sample, but even if the Cubs were to score one more runner per game they’d be on pace for a 1,000 run season. That would be an incredibly special season and 200 more than their championship campaign.

I don’t see this as a huge issue during the year, as they have found a multitude of ways to score runs. I do believe, if there’s a fundamental hitting reason behind it, that it would pose a threat in the playoffs. They face better pitching, there are fewer opportunities, and opposing managers are more likely to play matchups.

Walks

The Cubs pitching staff was hindered all of 2017 with issuing walks, especially from their bullpen. So the team fired Chris Bosio, brought in relievers that traditionally gave up few walks, and hired Jim Hickey. Ironically the Cubs went from allowing 3.44 walks per nine to allowing 4.18 in 2018.

This has been a colossal failure all around. Their rotation and pen are averaging more than four per nine.

Now, the team’s defense has improved and the actual results from the staff have improved as well. It’s less likely that a baserunner scores in 2018 than it was in 2017, but it’s more likely that a baserunner will score and important to ensure they aren’t allowed a free pass. As I mentioned when talking about the staff’s babip, it’s more and more likely that balls hit in play become hits and not find a glove. If this is going to happen with more baserunners, it could pose a major threat.

Optimism meter

I’m still incredibly high on this Cubs team. They score a ton of runs, they hit the ball, they’ll take their free passes, defensively they catch the ball better than any team, and their staff limits the damage done to them. There are areas that can be cleaned up, sure, but as of today, this is the best team in the National League. The stats support that statement, regardless of what the record shows at this moment. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team makes the playoffs. There’s no doubt that this team is better than the 2017 team. I wouldn’t even put them much closer to that 2016 team than the 2017 team – and that should mean good things for fans.

Jamie Baker

Hi, I’m Jamie and I run this site. I’ve published work on multiple other sites and through that experience I decided to create CHICAGO style SPORTS. We truly aim to speak for the Chicago fan. Additionally, as a member of the IBWAA (Internet Baseball Writers Association of America) you can be assured that all content you read will be written with incredible integrity.

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