Cubs Need a Philosophical Change
“Launch angle is not a fad.” Theo Epstein enthusiastically proclaimed in the midst of a tirade of very honest descriptions of the Chicago Cubs “broke” offense in October 2018. On that day Epstein promised that they would fix the offense and that this club would play with a different sense of urgency throughout the 2019 season. An urgency which wouldn’t allow for settling. An urgency which saw a complete overhaul of the club’s hitting coach, pitching coach, and bench coach.
Most believed that without an announcement of an extension for manager Joe Maddon happening at the end of 2018, his head was also on the chopping block.
Through the first 130 games of the 2019 season, this team is average. They own the 10th best record in baseball. They’re great at home, horrible on the road. Their offense is average. Their pitching is average. There is hardly an indication that this team has the ability to be elite, outside of payroll.
With more than $200 million invested in this roster, the accountability side of this business should tell you more jobs will be eliminated at season’s end. The biggest job will likely be that of Maddon’s.
But what is wrong with the Cubs doesn’t sit only on the manager’s shoulders, and while he will take the brunt of the blame, much more should rest on the ones creating organizational philosophy. The blame needs to start to shift towards the ones sitting in offices a block north of Wrigley. The finger needs to shift towards Epstein and Jed Hoyer.
Both of those two could very well retire as two of the best to ever do this job. Turning both the Boston Red Sox around, and creating a contender in the Cubs. While it’s easy to point to a few free-agent decisions that haven’t panned out the way they had hoped, the entirety of their resume proves their legacy. I’m not looking to berate them for any of those decisions, hell, I’d make most of those decisions myself.
I am looking to discuss their offensive philosophy, which started to become irrelevant sometime within the 2017 season.
Organizationally, the Cubs preach the launch-angle mantra. I will agree with Theo, it isn’t a fad and there are a bazillion numbers to back that up. Where it does seem like the philosophy fails them is in situational opportunities and two-strike counts.
We have all become familiar with the thought that, striking out isn’t a horrible out – especially in certain situations. And yes, I think there are some situations where striking out doesn’t hurt teams. But we are seeing other, more successful offenses manufacture runs in a more traditional way. Just making contact. But, since Theo and company have been at the helms in Chicago, the team has had the third-worst K% in baseball (22.3%) but the eighth-worst since Maddon has been the manager.
Look to Saturday’s game against the Washington Nationals. The Cubs had men on second and third with no out. All it takes is contact to the right side and you can score runs. There was no contact that inning, and while they worked bases loaded, Ian Happ strikes out looking (yes, a horrible pitch) to end the threat.
I love how several players on the club don’t extend the zone and get themselves out on bad pitches. That is an important aspect of what this club does well (most players). What they don’t do well is just making contact in situations where contact is called for. Just look back on that Nationals series. How many ground balls found their way through the infield? How many of those were in two-strike counts or with runners on base? This isn’t an accident, this is an approach that the Nationals employ, organizationally.
The answer might be all of them.
“In big moments we’ve got to stay in the middle of the field,” Martinez told reporters in April.
“Nobody was trying to do too much,” he said after an early-season win over the Mets.
“They were all trying to stay in the middle of the field like we talked about, and they put good at bats together.”
“We typically hit the ball up the middle,” Martinez reiterated in May.
“When you’ve got runners on base, try to stay up the middle of the field, a lot of hits up the middle of the field, and just move the ball.”
Anthony Rendon was a beast over the weekend series. It seemed every time he was up he was coming through and getting on. I counted at least four of his hits with two-strikes, where he shortened up and took a b-hack. We saw the Nationals b-hack their way to a three-game sweep of the Cubs.
I understand that there’s the idea that the Cubs were babip’d to death and that the Nationals philosophy isn’t sustainable over 162. Well, tell that to the Houston Astros.
Organizationally, the Astros have coached all throughout their organization a better sense of situational awareness. Players up and down their roster have a contact approach with two-strikes and in run-scoring opportunities. Sure, guys will strike out still, and those strikeout numbers will be more than your typical player from like 1985. But that’s more of a testament to the specialization of bullpens and the pure velocity that’s in the league today. Nonetheless, up and down their roster, players are better in these spots because they’re better prepared to be in those spots.
That preparation isn’t happening at the MLB-level either. This is an organizational plan from the lowest levels of A-Ball and rookie ball all the way up to the big leagues. This is a standard that they teach.
There is room for both approaches, and that’s the next wave to hit baseball. With a heavy reliance on defensive shifting, baseball players will need to incorporate a contact swing, b-hack, or situational approach depending on pitcher, approach, count, situation. But it’s going to take players that can already do it, and an organization to train their minor leaguers to do it. The makeup of the Cubs roster, now, isn’t a very receptive group to this approach. They’ve been brought through an organization that has preaching to take your same approach to every pitch in every count. The one differing voice has been Maddon.
Maddon hired Chili Davis to help with that approach, which coincidently led to the Cubs becoming the 10th hardest team to strike out. Maddon has preached professional at-bats. Having a planned approach to the zones, punching a ball around the diamond. He’s preached this approach since he’s been in Chicago, in fact, he’s consistently held meetings to preach a two-strike approach in spring training and continue to bang the drum throughout the season.
“The essence of the “B” hack,” Maddon describes, “is to choke up, look ‘away’ first and keep your fastball hack loaded. The mental adaptation with two strikes is where that begins. Choking up can lead to that thought, but it’s incredibly difficult to get guys to want to do that.
It has to be nurtured it in the minor leagues or college ball, but lots of times these guys hit third or fourth in college, not (figuring) they will be hitting seventh or eighth in a major-league situation. It’s a lost art, in a sense.”
Except it’s not lost, it’s coached out of them. Maddon hit on it, a player has to be open to the approach. But like Maddon points out, players have to be open to it as well.
Just think back to Little League, or travel ball, or high school. All of those coaches told you to choke up on the bat with two-strikes. “Choke up and make some contact!” But, you probably didn’t like to do it. These guys have been through those levels too, except they were so gifted that they got away without doing it, I, unfortunately, did not.
Sometime along the way, like Maddon hints, it became acceptable and almost coached out of them. It probably started when they were consistently hitting 450-foot bombs and guys like Theo and other incredibly smart front office personnel realized that they could score more when players took an aggressive approach to every pitch, but as defense and pitching matured to this idea, teams like the Cubs are finding themselves stuck in mediocrity.
To change it, Epstein and Hoyer and Jason McLeod and Jaron Madison have to start a new organizational philosophy. The scouts have to find the guys that are more open to a situational approach. And then at the big league level, it has to continue to be preached. But right now, Joe’s the only one banging that drum.
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This article has hit the problem that the cubs have fallen into. It is common sense and any baseball player should have been around a coach who would try to drive this into there brain . It is very simple with 2 strikes you level out the swing and put the ball into play.To try for homeruns all the time you will see avg. go from 300 down to maybe 240 or lower . These guys make more than what they should make if they don*t want to play this game the way it should be played.The Cubs have one of the most powerful lineup in baseball,but I can see that they have no sense when it comes to playing this game. In closing would like to say Cubbie*s it*s not to late to either start playing fun ball again or set on the couch and watch someone else play in the world series because you will not be there. Long time Cub fan but one that goes old school which never hurt anyone. Thank You for this. Now play ball!