Hottovy, Seven or Eight Man Rotation?
MLB teams will certainly need to get creative with their pitching staff in 2021, and it might tick some traditionalists off. You are lucky when a pitching coach gets a single pitcher to throw more than 180 innings, let alone 200 which has become a measuring stick in recent memory. In fact, in the 2019 season (the last full season) Justin Verlander led baseball with 229 innings pitched, and there were 15 starters that surpassed 200 IP. Just dial back 30 years to the 1989 season and baseball’s leader (Brett Saberhagen) had 262 1/3 IP and there were 52 pitchers with 200 or more innings thrown.
Traditionalists have already bemoaned how little pitchers throw in today’s game, heck, they complained about it in ’89 too. Now, coming off a season in which the MLB leader had 84 IP and the most starts were 13, teams will likely look to protect arms as they return to a full season’s work.
The Cubs find themselves in a bad spot. After allowing Tyler Chatwood, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester to walk in free agency and then trading Yu Darvish to the San Diego Padres, there are only two starting pitchers returning from the 2020 opening day roster (Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills).
While the team has added some pitching (Zach Davies and a couple of others), they are still going to need more guys from outside to come in and some from within to step up.
Cubs pitching coach, Tommy Hottovy spoke to this.
Hottovy, on rotation innings challenge teams face in '21, following '20 season:
"We can't be naive to think that we're going to get through the season only using seven or eight starters."
Said "creativity" required. Young arms will get opps. Multi-IP relievers a must.— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) January 5, 2021
It is interesting that Hottovy mentioned that they’re not naive to think they can only use seven or eight starters this season. Now, part of this is because the Cubs do not have a clear-cut fourth or fifth starter. The other piece is understanding that teams will need to watch innings coming off the shortened 2020 season.
TH: "We're going to have a lot of opportunity for young guys to step up and show that they can handle the Major League level and they're ready."
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) January 5, 2021
Behind Alzolay, mentioned Abbott, Marquez, Miller, Steele. Said Rule 5 pick Gray Fenter will be stretched out and given a look, too.
It will be pretty exciting to see someone like Brailyn Marquez get multiple starts in the bigs. While his debut wasn’t what he had hoped, I am definitely here for him to get multiple starts in 2021.
I am also very excited to see what the Cubs have been so hyped about with Adbert Alzolay. After adding, or modifying his slider (changed his grip which has been very effective) he has been talked up by everyone in the Cubs organization.
From bullpen, someone like Duane Underwood Jr. (starting experience in system) could be stretched out and given a look, too.
TH: "He's got the pedigree, He's got the experience of doing that at the Minor League level. I think he's a name you could definitely add to that list."— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) January 5, 2021
Underwood had split time between starter and reliever up until last year, where he spent his time in relief. He has the pitch selection to be a starter, but hasn’t been successful enough to say that’s where he belongs. It seems the Cubs will look to him to grab a spot start or two this upcoming season. This should have been a season where his performance dictates what he is, but out of the Cubs necessity, he very well could fill the role they need him to.
While a team runs through several starting pitchers every season, and it is rare to see less than seven or eight guys get starts. When they do, it is due to injury, rainouts, and double-headers. In the 2018 season, the Cubs had six pitchers that started double-digit games. But there were 12 pitchers that gained starts, and five of them had two or less starts.
In 2021, we really might see more than 15 pitchers take starts. I would suspect we see 10 of them get multiple starts. I would bet there will be at least eight guys with a minimum of 10 starts and the other five will have an average of five starts.
Can the Cubs compete with that many pitchers getting opportunities? Tommy thinks so…
Bottom line: Does Hottovy think Cubs can contend with current rotation?
— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) January 5, 2021
He said what you'd expect:
"I think we can absolutely contend. I definitely think we need more arms. But, we're talking about volume of arms."
No big FA splashes coming. Maybe next-tier adds. NRI fits.
Of course, he will say that he’s one of the coaches. I don’t know if it is realistic to believe this is reality.
While the Cubs do have some interesting, young arms, they are not exactly the World Series rotation you were looking for. This is why they will definitely add more pitching in free agency.
“What about Jon Lester!?”
I wouldn’t expect him to come back to Chicago. The Cubs might toss him a bone, and he may feel some loyalty to David Ross and has a comfort level in Chicago as well. Ultimately, Lester is short on remaining seasons and he will likely look to a team ready to compete, and probably not coming back to the Cubs as a player.
I would believe a Quintana and Cubs reunion isn’t very likely either, as there will likely be more teams interested in his services. Plus, it wasn’t like Cubs fans treated him very well so he isn’t going to subject himself to that again when there are others interested in him.
There could be a Cubs play in the Chatwood market. Either him (Chatwood) or other pitchers in that tier. Guys like Gio Gonzalez, Chase Anderson, Mike Leake, or Garrett Richards. No one that should excite you but guys that can help fill out a roster.
Yes, I know the Cubs are reducing payroll, but right now the Cubs have eliminated $75 million from their 2020 number (pre-COVID number). I do expect the team to add between $15 and $25 million to the 2021 budget, putting them in the $150-165 million range. With MLB free agency likely not being friendly to this tier of guys, this could mean three more MLB level pitchers for the Cubs.
Personally, I would be more excited to see the young, organizational arms than anyone the Cubs can buy. I wouldn’t be mad if we see Alzolay grab 25 or more starts and Marquez picking up 15 starts. They are more of the future of the Cubs, and Hoyer and ownership have made it pretty clear this is about the future and less about now.
