How Baez Can be the ‘Comeback Player of the Year’ in 2021
The 2020 season was one to throw away for a lot of MLB stars. One of those stars was the Chicago Cubs, Javier Baez. In 2020, Baez had his worst season in the bigs, and was rated among the worst hitters in baseball. Finishing the season with a 57 wRC+, Baez ended the 2020 season as the third *worst* offensive player in baseball.
While Baez has a lot of swing and miss, the 2020 season saw him reach near career-worst contact percentages (74.6%) and swinging strike percentages (19.1%). He also swung less in 2020, swinging at 52.9% of the pitches he saw in 2020, which was the lowest rate since the 2016 season (52.6%). This would be a sign of a more selective hitter, except this “patience” resulted in him swinging less at pitches in the zone.
This suggests that while pitchers had always been able to get Baez out on pitches out of the zone, they were getting him out on pitches in the zone at a higher rate since 2016.
Reasons for the steep decline have been all over the board, including, “he just isn’t a good offensive player” and “the lack of fans” as well as “pitchers have adjusted and he hasn’t been able to adjust back.” The truth lies somewhere in the middle of all of this. Baez, even removing the 2020 season (as I suggest with nearly all players) has only rated above average offensively one season. He has improved a lot, as of late, but even in his 2018 season (runner-up in the NL MVP vote), he was the 24th best offensive player.
We can put some of this on the lack of fans. I don’t compete at a professional level, but I do compete in some athletics. When conditions change, i.e. no fans, smaller competition field, more/less noise – it can have some drastic changes on overall performance. Case in point…
In a bowling tournament I recently bowled in, I finished as the top bowler in the first round of the tournament. When I came back for the second round, and there were no changes (bowling with a similar amount of bowlers, same lane conditions at the same center) I again finished as the top bowler. In the final round, there were only five bowlers. I had a bye in the first two rounds, and would play the winner of the lower seed matchups for the championship. I had averaged 244 throughout the tournament (pretty good) till this point. In the championship round, again with the same lane conditions and same bowling center, I bowled a 179 and the person I bowled finished with a 224.
Now, there could have been nerves or maybe I was tired or maybe I was over-rested since I didn’t bowl before that final game? But I felt fine and didn’t believe I was nervous. I just couldn’t turn it on and got down in the fifth frame and couldn’t find it again.
While a lot of factors could play here, I chalked a lot up to that championship game I didn’t have a fan there to watch, there were a total of like 10 bowlers in the facility, and everything was just far too quiet.
So, long story longer… I can understand Baez having issues not producing without fans in the stands. When you are used to a certain condition (cheering and general crowd noise) and then it isn’t there, you might have a harder time locking in since the tools you use to do so have been built with the regular conditions being met.
While fans might have something to do with his struggles, I think it was his inability to adjust mid-game by using video.
Baez had openly complained about this during the year and I think a lot of people dismissed this as a thing. They remembered playing in Little League, or High School, or even on a travel team. They never had video, so why should a professional athlete who is much better than they were, need it?
“To be honest, it sucks because I make my adjustments during the game,” Baez told reporters in September. “I watch my swing. I watch where the ball went, where the contact was. I’m mad. I’m really mad about that we don’t have it.”
MLB removed video usage on the heels of the Houston Astros cheating scandal. When teams (which there were more than the Astros cheating) were using this to tip-off hitters of a pitch coming or other factors within the game. Baez was rather upset that video was taken away since it wasn’t just used for nefarious reasons. He specifically attributed his near 250-point reduction in OPS to not being able to use video in 2020.
“We didn’t cheat,” Baez said. “We’re not cheating, and we got to pay for all this. It’s tough … but a lot of players are struggling, too. A lot of stars are struggling, and I’m just one more.
“The way that it is is not the way we play baseball. And I need video to make adjustments and during the game. It doesn’t matter who is there to watch us. It doesn’t matter if we have all the police the MLB wants to send over here.
“We need video [back], and I’m going to keep trying to bring it back because we need [it].”
Eno Sarris of The Athletic touched on this. While you can be a bit skeptical on the effectiveness on in-game video review (cause there was that homer you hit when you were 13 in your second AB against your rival’s ace) the proof is in the third time through an order.
In this graph, the bottom line suggests the league’s OPS the first two times a pitcher faces an offense. There was nearly a 20 point drop in the 2020 season from the 2019 campaign. While this is noticeable, it could be the league correcting itself from the giant leap between the 2018 and 2019 seasons (30 point increase).
If we measure the split between the first two times through and the third time through an order, from 2015 to 2019 there was an average of a 48 point split. Suggesting that if teams averaged a .740 OPS in the first two times through, that third time through the order hitters had a .788 OPS (both averaged numbers from 2015 to 2019).
In the 2020 season, there was only a 10 point gap between the two figures. That certainly is something that stands out and a big reason for this outlier is the fact that hitters couldn’t adjust, in-game, since they didn’t have video to look at.
Now, video is used for a number of things. Hitters can see how a pitcher got him out. They can verify a location of a pitch. They can even see the break of a pitch. Heck, some hitters even use video to scout the umpire on that day, as a ball that may have been a ball yesterday is a strike today.
While all of these help a hitter, they are all things that you can pickup while in the box or by talking among the team. After all, that’s how you blasted that homer in that 13u game way back when. But the biggest reason hitters are using video is to find a rhythm while in the box.
Have you ever heard, “hitting is timing pitching is upsetting timing?” This is as simple and as difficult as the game is. As a hitter, if you have all the tools and have a great swing, and your mechanics are all fine-tuned and smooth – if your timing is off, you’re not going to hit. Similarly, if you don’t have a great swing and sloppy mechanics, you can still hit a ball (while it might not go very far) if you have the right timing.
Baez used the video to help with his timing. He has a very load-dependent swing, meaning, all of his timing is based on his load. Josh Donaldson, a few years ago, explained the importance of rhythm and timing when swinging. He was really the first one to really come out and explain what it meant to the masses, and it was a giant “ah-ha” moment for many. As he explained, part of the load, leg kick, hands loaded, etc are part of the rhythm while coming forward, and exploding towards the ball is part of the timing.
https://twitter.com/TheHittingVault/status/1286998571938656256?s=20A lot of it is body control and being able to feel where you are at in relation to the pitcher’s delivery and mechanics. Outside a pitcher using a slide-step, they typically don’t use much else to change their delivery to deceive a hitter (outside perhaps Johnny Cueto). So being able to get in rhythm with the pitcher’s motion will help you be on time for the ball as it enters the hitting zone.
This is what Baez is looking for. How can I get in rhythm with the pitcher’s delivery so I can be on time?
Starting at the 2:59 mark, we can see the side view of Baez’s swing and we can really get the impression of what his leg kick looks like. Now, I wouldn’t go around teaching an 11-year-old this, unless he has Gary Sheffield like hand speed, but we can see how Baez uses that kick to get in rhythm with a pitcher. Then, once he gets that front foot down, torques his waist, he is able to be on time with Aaron Nola’s fastball (looked like a two-seam).
When a player like Baez has a leg kick so pronounced as he does, there is a lot of science to it. It isn’t just a, “it looks cool” sort of thing, it is a tool to get in rhythm with the pitcher. Parts of the leg kick will change with every pitcher. Maybe it isn’t as high, maybe it starts earlier, maybe later, maybe even more pronounced. Baez uses the video to help him fine-tune that kick throughout the game.
What is remarkable, for the first time in his career, Baez saw more sliders than fastballs. This adds another wrinkle in the rhythm vs. timing issues he had in 2020. This being so, he posted a career-worst average against the slider, hitting just a .162 AVG. Over the three previous years (his best three offensive seasons) Baez had a combined .260 AVG against the slider.
With him not being able to check video to give himself an advantage, he saw his several metrics dip. We understand (or we should understand) that batters have much more success when the ball is hit in the air. In 2020, Baez hit far fewer fly balls or line drives than his career averages. He also hit more pop-ups than he has at any time in his career.
Hitting fewer line drives or fly balls can be caused by any number of factors. But when I see a player missing the ball more than usual and an increase in their pop-up rates, that suggests a rhythm and timing issue. This is highlighted by a huge drop in his barrel % (12.6 and 12.7% in 2018 and 19 respectfully, and 8.1% in 2020) and he showed an increase in weak hit balls. This all suggests poor rhythm, poor timing.
If the ability to use video returns in 2021, I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect to see similar numbers from Baez as his 2019 season. I would also expect to see teams openly look for other ways to push these details to hitters, helping them to succeed at the plate. Seeing someone from the hitting staff timing different parts of a pitcher’s mechanics, so a hitter can better prep themselves for their at-bats. If these things happen, look for Baez to return to form in 2021.
