How the David Price Contract Could Fit in the Cubs Budget

David Price is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, with apologies to Clayton Kershaw, and he is about to become a very rich man. With his pending free agency, the next David Price contract will be more than what some countries are worth.

So how can the Chicago Cubs land Price? Well it will be tough.

To estimate how much Price will fetch on the open market we need to factor several factors; salary comparisons, production, teams involved.

There is a sweet spot where all three of those factors meet, and with all things considered it should be able to closely predict his next contract. Sure it might not be a perfect model, but it’s safe to say… it’ll be good to be David Price really soon.

Comparable players

Unless there is a huge cost increase, like with Alex Rodriguez first big contract with the Texas Rangers, using player comparisons might be one of the best ways to figure out Price’s next contract.

Top 10 pitching contracts according to Spotrac.

David Price’s agent (Bo McKinnis) will push towards the Clayton Kershaw mark, while team GM’s will push towards the Zack Greinke or Felix Hernandez mark. To be fair, let’s place an average among the top five guys (including Cliff Lee’s deal).

That average is $27.1 M per season, and since most free agent pitchers are fetching seven year deals, puts a total deal at roughly $190 M.

Definitely nothing to bat your eyes at, but things get more complicated than that.

Success matters

Team’s and agents use advanced Sabermetrics for more than just recording stats, they are often used to predict a players worth, and where to slot guys when offering new contracts. The easiest way to equate performance to salary is through a player’s WAR.

David Price had a 6.0 WAR for two teams in 2015, according to Baseball-Reference (some sites may vary in their equations), which ranked him sixth in baseball. Now there are several sites that do numbers way better than I do, but there are ranges that equate each win at anywhere from $5.9 M upwards of $7.0 M. Because this number is constantly growing, for this example we will use a baseline of $6.5 M cost per win, bringing Price’s estimated “worth” in 2015 to a booming $39 M.

What can be more complicating (or confusing) is, a lot of team’s — especially when signing long term deals — back load contracts which of course pay more in the tail end of deals, but also increases the cost per win. While a player might sign a deal paying an average of $10 M a season, he very likely could earn $12 M or more in the final seasons of that deal. If he was a 1.5 WAR player throughout the deal, the cost per win would escalate from $6.667 M to $8 M.

Why is that important? A player of course wants a fair contract compared to his peers, and one that reflects their current contributions, but three years from now they don’t want to be undervalued due to inflated costs. Additionally it is a general manager’s goal to buy future wins in the offseason. While a GM might offer a $200 M contract over eight years, the $25 M paid in the first season isn’t equivalent to $25 M paid eight years from now.

No, as Fangraphs explains, long term deals like the eight year example will be looked at as a four year contract with four years of deferred payments. The ballooned payment in the latter years is afforded through the expected success the player brings the team in the first several years.

Back to David Price. He might earn a deal with an average annual value of say, $35 M based on WAR, but he may earn a starting salary of $32 M in the first couple years, ballooning up to $38 M in his final years of the deal. If he does sign an eight year deal — as many expect — this would mean a 37 year old Price will earn almost $40 M.

Contending teams

This can be the biggest wild card. While the market on players is typically set, using comparable players and production, sometimes there are GM’s that will price a player out of the market.

The Texas Rangers did this with Alex Rodriguez back in 2000. Already with the highest offer on the table for A-Rod, the Rangers GM Doug Melvin bid more on top of his offer. At face value that sounds dumb, but there is certainly a fear when these GM’s go into negotiations that they will lose, and it’s especially worrisome if that player goes to a contending team.

In recent years the Angels and Detroit have played wild cards in free agency as well. Team’s that appear to have no interest, but swoop in last minute to sign big ticket guys like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. With a player of David Price’s ability, as well as the abundance of quality starting pitching that’s expected to be available, there will be many teams vying for the opportunity to sign one of these guys.

More competition means more money. The more money being thrown at Price could very well drive his.. price up considerably. This alone could easily make Price the highest paid pitcher in baseball.

Chicago Cubs perspective

The Cubs will most certainly be interested in signing David Price, and from rumors and quotes throughout the year, it sounds like Price will have interest in the Cubs as well. That said, David Price will not accept less money to play in Chicago. If the Cubs are serious about adding Price to the rotation, fully expect them to offer a seven to eight year contract with a guaranteed average salary of around $35 M a season.

That’s a lot to take in, isn’t it. Nearly $300 M for a single player, when just last year the team signed it’s highest paid player ever when Jon Lester agreed to a six year $155 M deal, which included a MLB record $30 M signing bonus.

On top of Lester’s contract, the Cubs will need to pay Jake Arrieta, who is open to an extension with the team, but has Scott Boras as his agent. Jake is under team control until 2017, but it would be wise of the team to lock him down long term this offseason, a task that appears difficult with Boras.

If there is an extension for Arrieta this offseason, expect it to be in the $15 to $20 M average per season range, and those figures very well could be a best case scenario for the Cubs. If Arrieta bets on himself, like former Detroit Tigers and current Wading ton National Max Scherzer did, he very well could earn in the $25 M range on the open market in two years.

With the Cubs committing $25 M a season to Lester, a projected $20 M to Arrieta, it will certainly be difficult to fathom the team committing another $35-40 M per season to Price. More than $80 M between three guys, who don’t play everyday, it a tough pill for many to swallow, including smart baseball GM’s.

Outside of the pitching staff, the Cubs will have a hole in centerfield to fill, as well as question marks throughout the team’s bullpen. It is extremely important to upgrade the starting rotation, especially during an offseason with so many quality arms available, but the Cubs need to figure in the additions they need to make along with the signability of their younger players once their current rookie deals run out.

Working in the Cubs favor is their youth. The team has Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Jorge Soler signed to either their rookie contracts or team favorable ones (Castro’s deal is good if the team has a full season of play like his final month and a half). As a large market team, that has money to spend, they could easily shift that money to cover their pitching staff, and as those contracts end, the youngsters deals should be ending as well.

The danger in this is, as players like Schwarber, Russell, and Bryant hit arbitration, their deals could balloon making even their cheap rookie deals, tens of millions of added salary. While the Cubs, their fans, and more importantly their executives will love to cross that bridge as the cross it, this facts should certainly be considered if you want to add a $35 M player for seven or eight years.

That aside, who wouldn’t want to see this rotation?

1. David Price
2. Jake Arrieta
3. Jon Lester
4. Kyle Hendricks
5. Jason Hammel

Sure would be interesting.

Verdict

The next David Price Contract will be absurd, no matter the way you look at it. He will break records for biggest contract and possibly biggest signing bonus. Certainly expect to see numbers in the $35 M average per season, covering seven to eight years.

While it would be a huge acquisition for the Cubs, or any team for that matter, it is hard to justify adding $35 M to team that made it to the NLCS a year or two early. While there have been times which a Price Cubs union seemed a forgone certainty, adding the numbers seems to put that into question. The Baseball Essential does a very good job of detailing why a Price to Chicago marriage could work — along with the reasons for a Toronto divorce — and while I agree, the Cubs can do a lot more by adding a slightly less talented starter. But insiders will continue to believe the Cubs are one of maybe two legit landing spots for one of the best hurlers in the game.

“No matter how many times someone with the Blue Jays says David price may return, sorry, I’m having a hard time seeing Price and the Jays getting back together,” Jon Heyman wrote. “The smart money has the Cubs and Dodgers as the most likely teams for Price.”

This is why instead of signing Price, there is a rising belief that the Cubs will pursue a guy like Jordan Zimmermann as well as bringing in another young stud pitcher with years of team control.

Will that young guy be Sonny Gray as proposed in this deal? Time will tell on this one, and as the World Series closes, the hot stove league heats up.

This offseason will certainly be an exciting one in Chicago. While some fans might not like the idea of anot her huge long term contract, Price is hands down one of the best pitchers in the game today, and gives the team a legit shutdown 1-2 punch at the start of the rotation (Price and Arrieta) with Jon Lester possibly becoming the best third starter in the game.