It’s Just Bad Luck
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 13: Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Chicago Cubs watches his solo home run in the seventh inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during game four of the National League Division Series at Wrigley Field on October 13, 2015 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 584227879
Six Flags just announced a new ride, it’s called the 2017 Chicago Cubs season. It’s been a long while since I’ve seen a year that has been this up and down. For every three or four game winning streak, there’s an equal three or four game losing streak. And like you’d expect, a team playing this way sits right around .500 after their first 50 games.
As luck would have it
Sitting at 25-27, the Cubs would be relatively out of contention in either the American League West and the National League East. They would have a hard time selling to their fans they could compete in any other division for that matter. Luckily they are in the NL Central where they follow the Milwaukee Brewers by only two games.
But that’s not the luck I’m talking about, although at this point it is lucky. I am talking about the Cubs hitting, or lack there of. We can point to things like batting average or RBIs or average with runners in scoring position. Sure those tell a story, but it doesn’t tell the story.
We look at the Cubs .215 AVG with RISP and know that’s bad. But why is their average bad in that situation?
They strike out too much!
Well that’s not true, and we know that cause I suggested that first and more scientifically, they strike out at an 18% rate with RISP. That’s a lower rate than they do in any other situation.
They don’t do enough to get on!
Well again, that’s not exactly true. The Cubs have a team .331 OBP with runners in scoring position. The league average is .321 and MLB’s average OBP is .322.
So they get on, and they aren’t wasting their at bats… so what is it…?
Ahem… luck, or the lack there of.
The Cubs have had 516 total plate appearances with RISP (as of this Monday). In those appearances Cubs hitters have reached safely in 159 of those chances. With 68 walks and 95 strikeouts, the Cubs have put a ball in play 329 times. Cubs hitters only have 91 hits in those 329 chances, have reached on error in five other occasions, and reached by getting hit by a pitch 10 times.
Real Issue
The most glaring issue is the lack of hitting in these situations, but as we illustrated, there isn’t a lack of contact. It is the well below league average, batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
Oh no, it’s not another Sabermetrics article is it!?
Yes and no. The stats are there because they tell a story or tell you what to expect. A team’s offensive BABIP will end up right around .300. The same is true as far a pitchers, they will surrender a BABIP of around. 300. As a team, the Cubs are hovering around .235 with RISP. This has as much to do with the league’s second worst team at runners left on base (7.46) as anything else.
Like the hitters, Cubs pitchers aren’t holding up their end in regards to BABIP either. Opposing hitters have a .313 BABIP against the Cubs starters. Coincidently, the Cubs relievers have a .265 BABIP (some of you are screaming that can’t be true right now, aren’t you?).
It is possible for some players or some teams to perform dramatically higher or lower, but over the course of a season they tend to regress or improve to the mean.
How to fix it?
The Cubs as a whole aren’t hitting up to their lofty expectations, as their team .238 team average suggests. Whether it is luck or above average defense that is contributing, they will more than likely perform better, find more holes, and hit the ball harder these next four months.
Perhaps the most probable way for the Cubs hitters to improve is striking the ball better. Balls that are hit hard have a much higher probability to land for a hit. Just think about it, unless a ball is hit directly at someone, barring an incredible defensive play, a ball hit hard is more difficult to field. Simple. Thus far the Cubs as a team is hitting the ball softer than the league average (87.83), hitting the ball at an 87.46 average MPH. Surprisingly Jason Heyward leads the team with a 90.89 MPH average.
So hit ball harder = more hits. Which why wouldn’t you think Kris Bryant (86.08), Anthony Rizzo (87.91), Addison Russell (87.22), and Kyle Schwarber (88.57) could improve? These are all sluggers and outside of Heyward, none of them land in the top 50 in exit velocity (he’s 50th). This list is a who’s who of sluggers and to only have one Cubs representative just doesn’t make sense.
Likewise, Cubs pitchers will pitch down to the BABIP mean. Keep in mind, pitchers have less influence on BABIP, and I think their performance will, and have, weighed heavily on the team’s defense. We saw the Cubs pitchers dominate in 2016, and their .257 BABIP showed. So are the Cubs pitchers just unlucky or has the defense regressed that much?
Fangraphs had measured the 2016 Cubs as the best defensive team (perhaps ever) at a total defensive rating of 69. Turn the calendar forward and now the Cubs rank 16th in baseball with a 0.6 rating. Stack that on top of the fact that the ’16 Cubs defense saved a run every other game (82 to be exact), and have only figured to save 9 runs in 2017.
Now we have to be careful, because the BABIP mean happens to be .300, don’t expect the Cubs hitters to carry a .350 or pitchers to allow .250 the remainder of the season to average out. Just continuing at .300 for the remaining 110 games and results should get better. With guys like Rizzo, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Contreras, and Zobrist all hitting under their 2016 totals or well under expectations – you can easily see how they could improve. Add a hot Ian Happ and the team’s offense could very well take off.
So what should the Cubs do to improve? Really nothing… they just need to get lucky again.
