STEALING FIRST!?!? It Could be a Thing Soon – Says Mr Roboto
Its the bottom of the ninth inning, the closer is on the mound. Tying run is on third. There’s two outs and a 1-2 count on that speedy and crafty hitter. Everyone in the ballpark knows the pitcher is going to bury his nasty slider into the dirt, getting the hitter to swing over it. Sure enough, that’s what happens, but the ball skips under the catcher’s glove. The hitter sprints to first as the ball corrals against the backstop. The hitter reaches as the runner from third crosses the plate. The home crowd goes nuts as they walk off on a strikeout.
A dropped third strike, where the hitter reaches, happens maybe once or twice a week throughout a baseball season (no science to that, just about as often as I see it watching multiple games/teams). It rarely ever impacts a game to the extent I described above, but it usually is a dagger to the pitcher and defense’s heart. You know you got him out, but there he is on first base.
I have felt this pain more times than I’d like to admit. Coaching Pony baseball, it seemed anytime a hitter was struck out in a big situation, dropped third was in play. We had a kid on the team that would purposely swing at a horrible pitch with two strikes, take off running while he’s swinging, because he knew it was unlikely he’d get thrown out at first.
What if you could steal first on any pitch, in any count?
That’s exactly what baseball is experimenting with in the Atlantic League. Essentially, any wild pitch or passed ball, in any count, can result in a player “stealing first.”
I know the purists will scream about how there should never be rule changes, but if we never changed rules, pitchers would still throw underhand and hitters could request pitch locations.
I’ll add my opinion on this at the end, but let’s think about what this could mean/do for the game.
The first thing I see is putting an emphasis on speed again. Growing up watching the game, speed was an important part of a baseball game. Having multiple guys on your roster that could steal a base, when everyone in the park knew you were stealing, was a necessity. Today, teams value outs (perhaps too much) so you don’t see bunting or stealing as often.
Today even the fastest players don’t take advantage of their speed as much as the might have 30 years ago. Right now, the MLB stolen base leader, Adalberto Mondesi, has 28 swipes on the year. On three separate occasions, Vince Coleman stole over 100 bases. Rickey Henderson stole more than 1,400 bases. Mondesi would be lucky if he has 1,400 career hits.
Teams might be more inclined to find a guy like Terrance Gore and toss him on the roster – and not for the ability to swipe a traditional base. Well, maybe not Gore, who has 15 career hits and 40 career stolen bases.
But this changes the way a pitcher will pitch to speedy guys like Billy Hamilton. A pitcher can’t punch balls in the dirt on any pitch as he could find his way to first. So do they pitch them more honestly, less on the outsides or low and opt to pitch in the zone or up?
Conversely, hitters have to use some strategy to this as well.
Lets say a hitter has a 2-0 count and the ball gets by the catcher for ball three. Does he go, knowing there’s a chance to get thrown out and he will have a 3-0 count? Or even if it’s early, like the first pitch? Do they attempt to steal first before the at bat even plays out?
As the game has evolved to a three true outcome game (walk, home run, strikeout), strategy has diminished. This could add some strategy back to the game. It could add a fourth outcome to the game. As weird of a notion this is – it could be good for the game.
I really want to see how much this comes into play for the Atlantic League. I can’t imagine this happening more than three times a week across all of baseball.
This isn’t the only change the Atlantic League incorporated, in conjunction with MLB. They added a prohibition of mound visits, a ban of defensive shifts, a three-batter minimum for new pitchers, larger bases, and robot umpires.
Yes, robot umpires have arrived.
In the Atlantic League All Star game, the home plate umpire had an Apple AirPod in his ear, iPhone in his pocket, and a software calling balls and strikes from the press box.
The software only called balls and strikes, but if the umpire behind the plate believed the call was incorrect, he was allowed to change the call. While players found the system would call the high and low strike, something human umps tend to let go, they believed it was a good experience.
What was more notable, the umpires were onboard with the robo-ump as well.
“I have seen this coming. It’s inevitable,” Derek Moccia, an Atlantic League ump noted. “The game is changing. Baseball needs to speed up to keep up with the world. And if you want to be on board with this, you have to keep up. The game is bigger than you, bigger than any player.”
While it will be sometime before robo-umpires make their way to the MLB game, the change isn’t as far away as it seemed just last season. The blend of technology and the human element, to correct a call, will likely make it more tolerable to even that staunchest purist.
