Trading Bryant Will Doom the Cubs

I’m sorry if there’s too much Kris Bryant content on the site, but it is for good reason. It’s because trading Kris Bryant is about the stupidest idea to have entered the conversation in a long time. The stupidest thing is – it might just happen.

I will say, Bryant, is my personal *favorite* Cub right now. I have very consistently said if I’m forced to pay to see one specific player, that player is Javier Baez. I love the passion and fire guys like Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras play the game with. And there is nothing like a Kyle Schwarber home run.

But I am sorry, and this is something more people need to realize – Kris Bryant is the best player on this team.

Here’s a test. Let’s take away the names from all the players. Let’s simply put the stats and ages on the board – who would you be more likely to trade?

• 30 years old, .273/.373/.488, 24 HR per season, 74 R per season, 134 games per season, 3.2 WAR per season
• 27, .267/.350/.470, 17 HR, 48 R, 109 G, 2.1 WAR
• 27, .284/.385/.516, 28 HR, 97 R, 141 G, 5.6 WAR
• 27, .270/.310/.484, 18 HR, 57 R, 111 G, 2.3 WAR

One of those players – according to WAR – is nearly two times as valuable than the next closest player. That player scores 23 more runs than the next closest player. He has a better batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage than anyone else on this list. He also plays in more games than any of the other stars on this team – which should answer any ridiculous questions about the always being injured nonsense.

Yes, that third player is Kris Bryant and he’s the best player on this team and it isn’t particularly close.

Now sure, you can complain about his defense at third base. He isn’t a Gold Glove finalist, likely never will be. He does play six positions pretty well and adds value that almost cannot be measured by being able to be slotted into almost every position outside of catcher and pitcher on a daily basis. Then there is the poor narrative on him not being able to come through in the clutch.

Here’s the thing, being “clutch” really isn’t a measurable thing, and teams don’t look to “clutch” as a skill since it is all based on small sample sizes. Nearly every player that has played 10 years or more has seen their “clutch stats” end right around their normal career stat lines. Just look to Derek Jeter. His legend has said he is one of, if not the best playoff performer of all time, yet, his playoff numbers are right in line with his regular-season numbers. He basically was the same player in the regular season as he was in the playoffs but will be remembered as one of the best playoff players to ever play the game.

In 2019, Bryant owned a .887 OPS with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP). He finished the regular season with a .903 OPS. That’s the difference of like six hits across a season or one additional hit per month. People complain about his numbers over one extra hit per month…

To trade Bryant, and let’s say a deal with the Atlanta Braves comes to fruition and the Cubs receive Max Fried in return. Fried was a 3.0 WAR player in 2019 – the best WAR season of his career (mostly because it was the first full season of his career). Bryant, as I already showed, averages 5.6 WAR per season. So the Cubs need to find a way to replace another 2.6 wins. But they are still losing daily value as Fried only pitches every fifth day.

So let’s assume David Bote becomes the everyday third baseman, he would need to produce a 5.6 WAR season (he had a 1.5 WAR in 2019, so he would need to produce his 1.5, then 1.5 to cover his loss and 2.6 to cover Bryant’s loss) to make up the difference with the loss of Bryant.

This doesn’t cover the loss of wins from guys like Cole Hamels and Nick Castellanos. All that work to get the Cubs to around three wins less than they had in 2019 (of course on paper and no, WAR doesn’t necessarily work like this).

The other ridiculous comment I hear or read over and over and over again is Bryant is mad about the service time manipulation. Fact is, NO ONE knows that for sure but he sure as HELL wouldn’t have publicly said he wants to sign a long-term deal with the Cubs. His agent, Scott Boras sure as HELL wouldn’t have said they want to sign a long-term contract. This has been a common stance from Bryant but yet people seem to think his service time issue is keeping him from signing a long-term contract.

Honestly, the Cubs trying to go on the cheap for him is likely why he hasn’t signed a long-term contract with the Cubs.

“But look at Anthony Rizzo! He signed a team-friendly deal to be a Cub!”

True, but their situations were different. 1000% different. Rizzo was a sixth-round draft pick. Bryant was selected second overall. Rizzo received a $325,000 signing bonus from the Boston Red Sox when he signed. Bryant received a $6.7 million deal. Rizzo, dealt with cancer a trade to San Diego, struggled hard in his first stint in the bigs and was traded again. Bryant was the Golden Spikes winner, Minor League Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, MVP, and a World Champion.

THEIR STORIES ARE NOT THE SAME

Rizzo jumped at security early in his career, something he hadn’t had until that contract offer. Bryant was given more money upfront that the first overall pick in his draft (Mark Appel), was consistently given more money than salary arbitration predictions, earned promotional gigs, and had money to hold off on any extension to bet on himself.

So yes, Bryant will want more than Rizzo and he deserves more than Rizzo (hell, Rizzo needs more than Rizzo). There is a fair deal out there too! Just look directly at Colorado Rockies and Nolan Arenado.

Last offseason, the Arenado signed an eight-year $260 million extension. This would pay $32.5 million a season. A Bryant deal should be something right around this figure and it shouldn’t be that difficult to get done. And if you think that the Cubs can’t afford this, then maybe stop listening to the Ricketts and start looking at their bottom line.

While any baseball owner is free to run their organization however they see fit, as long as they aren’t breaking MLB rules or absolutely swindling fans. But the fact of the matter is, the Cubs are more valuable and more profitable than ever before. And yes, they have spent more money than almost every organization over the past five seasons – but they are spending a smaller split of their profit on player salaries than any time throughout the past 30 years.

Meaning, the Ricketts are pocketing a larger portion of the profits than any Cubs owner in recent memory and fans let them off by crying broke. Fans have allowed the Ricketts to control the narrative similar to a slick speaking politician. So they have the money, they have plenty of money.

Also, don’t buy the luxury tax as an excuse either. The luxury tax is peanuts compared to playoff shares and even less compared to the revenues that championships bring in.

Keeping Bryant around, even if they don’t win another championship is better than trading him – even if they get nothing if he leaves. By simply trading Bryant they are a weaker team, and they would become a weaker team just when the Milwaukee Brewers and St Louis Cardinals have jumped above them and the Cincinnati Reds have made vast improvements. Trading Bryant will equate to more losses and more losses would have just said the Cubs would have been dumb to have kept any of their stars and didn’t just hit the reset button.

So, no… it isn’t better for the Cubs to trade him instead of getting nothing in return. Bryant isn’t the best trade option. Bryant is the best player on this roster and it just isn’t close.